The most intriguing question in investing/trading is where the hot money will go next...
Most investors/traders have a tendency to stay overweight with previous hot stocks longer than prudent...
Most investors/traders are too mesmerized by CNBC coverage of what is flying today.....without analyzing if the tape is stalling or stuck in a range......
It is also easy to ignore the potential which exist in stocks which has made multi year base and are ready to start their gradual climb...because these stocks are never discussed on CNBC by shouting/screaming/ding dong laden pundits.....they are always hyping the last $2 moves.....and everybody feels that they missed out on easy $2 per share......
Trading/investing is lot of ongoing FA & TA..which most people are not interested in doing...everybody is looking for a quick trade based on tips.......that can & has become a trap for many in hindsight...
Semiconductors has been lagging for almost a year.....many opportunity exist in that arena..as they all finished reporting Q which may have been a trough.....so uptrend is beginning just now....
Semis may be in a multi year uptrend......
The other beaten down sector is refinery which has not seen the end of narrowing of crack spread......they are reporting the worst Q in a long time......are we on the verge of improving crack spread...i personally like to think so.....
Gold stocks have corrected sharply due to recent slump in gold prices from $1000+ t0 current $850+ area......about $17% haircut......Gold stocks are looking interesting also...
Home builders have discounted foreclosures in a big way..as if all homes in US is going to be foreclosed and no new homes will be built for another two years......Home builders stocks look interesting bets.....
So what has been hot in the past few months.....Ag,Financials,Steels,infrastructure,Oils....now the question is ...are they going to take a breather here.........only time will tell....
I have placed my bets away from the hot sectors for now......
Here is my $ weighting as of Fridays close :
EGO gold 10.8%
PMCS semi 4.7%
RIMM tech 44.6%
TSO refiner 25.6%
TOL home builder 14.3%
Please do your own due diligence and find your own comfort level with markets & stocks..it is NEVER easy to make money in markets.
Always stay diversified in many sectors......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
11 comments:
Saleem,
It is an excellent analysis that you put together. I have been traded for around 7 years and I used to buy and hold and my stocks had gone up to 200-300% but I did not cash my profit and let it pulled back and turned to a lost.
I believe your analysis has answered to many investors' questions including myself. Finding next hot sector to invest is not easy but your analysis pointed out one by one with good explanation.
What do you think about Solar sector? It has gone up fast but right now seems to be in the trading range. Does it have a potential of “break out” the trading range?
Have a nice weekend.
Michael
Hi Michael,
Thanks for your appreciative note.
I am generally little early in new sectors..but i keep trading quickly to make a quick buck...when possible.
I do not mind waiting if the return is there.....it is all about making money.
Solar has pulled back towards the low end of the range....I am watching solar closely for an entry point in JASO & SOL...
Chinese Solar is reporting from next monday...so I will be in by end of the week...
Saleem
Check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scYQxsjvh98
SALEEM
Good morning my friend
It is Sunny and warm here in DC! Lets hope for a green day
I am excited about the Tech stocks and I can understand your rationale
very well. I am lookng at AAPL and PMCS and maybe GOLD.
I sold DRYS and now own:
AGU CHL DSX GS-43 shares. Also
HOS and TOL, TSO.
Thanks for all that you do
M
Saleem,
Great analysis! The beaten down sectors may start to play catch up, Tech, Housing, Financials......The commodities look pretty played out at the moment. If oil corrects so will AG and Solar. China stocks may get a boost from the Olympics in 100 days. Atlanta real estate prices stable to slightly discounted. Some areas moving up. Restaurants taking a beating from high gas prices also with retailers. Homedepo and Lowes say business ok.
Hi Madmax,
Thanks for your appreciative note.
yes go for your choice on tech...they look good.
I am glad you sold DRYS because you have DSX.
Good luck on a sunny day in Toronto also.
Saleem
Hi Standards,
Thanks for your corroboration of my thesis.
I think Solar may come back in vogue beacuse of focus on AE...even by GWB.
Saleem
Saleem, you entering V today, what is the entry point you are looking for, I might add more with you..
Hi Troy,
V had a great entry point today when it was down to $80.82....but went for SOL instead..as it was showing relative strength in solar sector.
V wants to go higher..imho
Saleem
Did you guys check this LDK TA video, it confirm the breakout and its behaving nicely today:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scYQxsjvh98
Troy,
I did check the video and checked Mojo website with analysis on many other Solar stocks: STP, LDK, CSIQ, SOL...
He is correct about LDK but not correct about SOL since he said SOL might be pulling back to 11s.
I followed Saleem's lead on SOL and bought 500 shares of SOL at 16.
Thanks Saleem.
Michael
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