S&P 500 closed @ 1244.68 only 4 points ABOVE 52 wk LOW...
All the indices are in "bear market territory"
Markets are very unpredictable near bear market lows...
You will notice that NOT all stocks make LOWS near bottom....look for relative strength or improving fundamentals.....
In my portfolio :
AAPL rating 60/55 target $192.66
SOL rating 100/100 rated for a "breakout" @ $13.69 for a target of $17.01
SOL was rated @ BUY today by Piper Jaffrey with a target of $35...also raised earning estimate for 08 & 09 ...P J expecting a slight beat in Q2....
Today markets tanked on two set of news....Funding raised by Mortgage backers were @ higher than expected interest rates.....
CSCO CEO John Chambers highlighted that the recovery is more like in 09 vs 2nd half of 08...CSCO has NOT performed for 8 years now.....it is NO longer a bellwether for anything....
CSCO negative guidance is more of a NORM than surprise.......
I am expecting a "calmer tape on Thursday"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
From Yahoo MB, very interesting take, must read:
Calling the bottom (based on CNBC programming)
Hello everyone:
After having enjoyed my daily dose of Fast Money, I was sitting on my balcony this afternoon, enjoying the sun here in California, when it hot me. I got this epiphany about gageing the stock market based on CNBC.
* Noticed how Cramer had three shows per day? Now he is down to two.
* Noticed how Fast Money had two shows per day? Now they are down to one.
* Noticed what has replaced the rerun of Fast Money at 8 EST? Yes, it is Suze Orman and she doesn't tell people how to make money in the market. No, she tells people how to get out of or how not get into debt.
* Noticed how the commercial breaks have been getting longer and more frequent in most of CNBC's programming? Clearly, the ad market is not slowing down (just yet), it just looks like CNBC is running out of stocks to pump.
* Noticed how even Krazy Kudlow is now asking for government intervention?
Anyways, things are going to get worse, as long as people are eagerly trying to pick the bottom and talking heads are telling you that banks can't go any lower because XYZ.
Therefore, here is my call on the bottom.
The market has bottomed when:
* Fast Money is down to 30 minutes once a day and all the guys on the show are telling you to short or to just stay out of the market (funny enough, Jeff Macke did that today)
* Suze Orman has one show with two reruns per day
* Cramer is off the air
Not sure how many points you will see in the Dow at the bottom (I am guessing somewhere around 10,000) or when it will get there, but watch that CNBC program guide and be ready to put your money to work when Cramer is writing books about money market investing.
I am in 100% cash. The reason is that the housing market will not bottom until mid 2009.Until housing bottoms, the financials will and can't rally and without financials this market will not go higher. Good luck to all Charlie
Hi Troy,
Callig a bottom on markets is a fruitless excercise.
One MUST concentrate on calling a bottom on stocks you have followed IS a worthwhile pursuit.
I NEVER worry about markets but worry a whole LOT about the stocks I own....they CAN/DO blowup in bull markets.
Fast/Mad money IS an entertainment show where NO FACTUAL reason for an opinion is ever given....
Those shows are neither FA or TA driven...so why pay attention....
Many stocks are looking very strong...and that is what is important......
Look @ Ag,Steels.....they are looking very good !!!!
PS...they NEVER ring a bell near/@ market bottom.
Do whatever feels RIGHT !!!
Saleem
Hi Charlie,
Being 100% cash is OK......
Stocks do turn UP BEFORE the issues have resolved.
Saleem
TROY
Fantastic write up--A must read!
Love a well written story--I agree with it.
Oils and drillers are coming back PQ HAL strong OII too.
Monsanto was a blast yesterday gotta have Corn seed.
AAPL, J Cramer says sell before releaase of I phone put money into AT&T--bull shit I say--buy buy
APPL rules!!!!!!!!!!
SOL should start the long process of recovery.
I did not like the fact that ENGLAND says housing is dropping like a rock there! Down 6.5 % so far. They say they are going into a recession! Gosh, depressing news.
On the bright side look ahd Rom and Hass buy out - Over $40 buck premium paid by Dow. Wow
M
Which are some good AG/Steel plays and at what price?
Hi Troy,
IPI in Ag and GSI in steel @ current price !!!!
Saleem
SALEEM
I also like MON and POT for AG plays
I do not know or follow steel.
Medical stocks seem to be in favor
lately
Cheers to all
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