Sunday, December 14, 2008

Markets have come a long way from deep BEAR !!!!

Markets are giving every signal that 17 month BEAR tape is coming to an END????

Why is it coming to an end?

Because....

After 17 months the whole world KNOWS & HAS seen the depth of this recession....

CHINA & INDIA are also showing SLUMP in their economic activity with their latest economic data.....

CHINA,INDIA,ECB,US are all aggressively involved in STIMULATIVE activity...CANADA is all set to join in stimulating their economy on Jan 26......

With all the Stimulus in-place we will be LUCKY to see China GDP growing @ 6%,India 5%,Canada 3%,US 2% & Europe 1% in 2009...

SO...all the world economy is in RECESSION now......@ the same time.....

They are all stimulating various sectors with INFRASTRUCTURE being the biggest beneficiary....

This focus on infrastructure will boost all commodities which has been beaten down......including GOLD & OIL.....

Any equity position taken must be done with serious due diligence as individual stocks will be pressured due to ongoing negative growth in next 2 Q....

That is the reason..I have favoured ETF in many sectors ..they all trade in Toronto....

Here is my sector focus/weighting:

HFU.TO all Canadian Banks & financials stocks long 12.5%

HOU.TO Crude oil long 25%

HMU.TO World mining stocks long 25%

HSU.TO S&P500 index long 12.5%

HQU.TO Nasdaq 100 index long 25%

Except for Crude ...I am UP in every ETF....

Plus..... I am short US$.....which is working lately but down overall in this strategy as US$ has been super strong since July...but is faltering NOW and has broken 50DMA support......

Markets are looking ahead to recovery in world economy NOW...so a diversified ETF strategy MAY be the-best......

Pay close attention to sector movement.......that will give you the clue to profitable trade/investment...

MOST investors/traders have been burned by this relentless bear including me......BUT that is NO excuse to take a pass on the market NOW......when things MAY work out and may RECOUP some /most of the loss.....

Good luck on your OWN due diligence...remember it is your hard earned money which you will NEED in future.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

4 comments:

Madmax said...

Here is news on AUTO bailout
http://www.onenewsnow.com/Blog/Default.aspx?id=350674

Comments appreciated

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

BDI moving up again quickly, 4 days in a row. Interesting news on China. Retail sales 20% higher in Nov than last year same time. So the pundits say things are slow in China? 8.5% growth for 2009 is still eye popping growth. Sold FRE for tax losses. Will be buying on dips.

Best Regards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

Markets are looking ahead to better economy....

Material stocks will be first to move !!!!

Cleaning up portfolio is a great idea !!!

Saleem

Madmax said...

BDR up again:

Daily Market: This page contains the latest Dry Bulk Shipping News

15 December 2008

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +39 803
Rates
BCI

(Cape index)

BPI

(Panamax index)

BSI

(Supramax index)
INDEX
1454

+123

450

+10

486

-4

SPOT 4 TCE AVG (USD)
9740

+1479

3617

-80

5081

-44

YESTERDAY (USD)
8261

3537

5125

YEAR AGO (USD) 170677 75077
63388

Monsanto is up big my APPLE is down on GS downgrade
Yuk