Sunday, May 24, 2009

Last 5 weeks S&P 500 gone nowhere???

On April 17th S&P 500 was @ 875......

Friday May 22nd S&P 500 low was 883.....

So...in the last 5 weeks..it was a market to "nowhere"....

S&P 500 is showing interesting pattern....
May 13 883.92,
May 15 882.88,
May 22 883.75..
so in the last 8 trading days we are basing in 883 area?

S&P500 needed to consolidate after a major move from 666 on March 6th to 929 on May 8th..
8 week of 263 points gain or a move UP of 39.49%.......

Looking @ another way S&P 500 is @ same level as it was back in October of 2008.....
IN 8 months S&P 500 Drop of 263 points and regained 221 points as of Fridays close of 883.75.....

So...S&P 500 have given back 42 points from May 8th High or a 4.5% pullback.......

Somehow 4.5% pullback seems more painful than it should???

Lot of stocks have given up major part of their gains in that small pullback??

So...the question is???

Are we ready to move back UP higher than before???

RSI on S&P 500 is @ 51.86...which IS @ same level as back in March 9th???

March 9th was near market bottom???

So..@ least RSI is looking very promising for a major move UP......

I have found RSI more reliable in picking market trend & stocks.....

In this selling many stocks have gone below their recent trading range in RSI.....

I use www.stockcharts.com for a read of their 4 month RSI trend under "default sharpcharts" in the heading of gallery view.....

RSI range of 50 to BUY & 70 to SELL works most of the time....but 4 month trend must be analyzed for decision making on both BUY & SELL decision...each stock has their own trend in RSI.....

Here is a sample of RSI of stocks which I own & other very compelling names :

MRVL...54.45
MPEL...56.45
PMCS...43.28
PALM...46.22
AAPL...48.69
RIMM...55.63
GOOG...53.52
AMZN...46.09
BIDU...58.98
GS....57.17
GE....53.28
MA....46.79
V.....57.09
IPI....66.37
POT..71.50
AGU..65.32
NVDA..47.21
ISRG...49.60
FSLR...60.08

As you can clearly see that some stocks are holding better than others.....

Also..you can see that their is a sector trend .....some sector are holding better than other sector.

This type of monitoring CAN help you in your OWN buying decision......

It is always useful to see where is the "Relative Strength Indicator"

RSI is a useful tool BUT it is important to mix it with Fundamental analysis...which I always do FIRST ......

So for me 70% FA & then only 30% TA......

So...are you READY for the next major leg UP which may take us very close to 1000 in S&P 500...

Good luck in your OWN homework.

Do NOT forget to DIVERSIFY in many sectors or sub-sectors.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

4 comments:

madmax said...

happy holiday to all

madmax said...

SALEEM

Here is some news:
Looking at Lone Pine's holdings at the end of Q1, the hedge fund opened new stakes in several names, including pharmacy benefit management company Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS - News), beverage giant PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP - News), and tobacco firm Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM - News).

Lone Pine was also adding to stakes in credit card companies Visa (NYSE: V - News), bank JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM - News), Mexican convenience store operator Fomento Econmico Mexicano "FEMSA" (NYSE: FMX - News), agricultural products company Monsanto (NYSE: MON - News), and railroad Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP - News).

Looking at tickerspy.com's graph charting
Hurray for Monsanto--they are the King on Money

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

Market is strong.....

Portfolio is strong....

What else is needed in Life $$$

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Hi All,

BDI strong +159 2952

Best Regards