Sunday, August 30, 2009

Market remains in UPTREND.........

Markets are giving a clear sign that UPTREND is in tact.....no matter how many BEARS are shouting for a "major pullback"

We have witnessed an army of BEARS come on CNBC and declare the "end of this bull run" for months now...I cannot believe that they have the guts to come on CNBC after being 200% WRONG for months......

Why 200% WRONG..because they are saying that we ARE going DOWN..BUT we keep going UP..so you lose on 100% on short & miss 100% on NOT being a bull......a double edge sword IF you Follow Art non-Cashin,Robert Prechter,Doug Kass,Cliggott,Adami and thousands more..who were 100% sure we go down several thousand Dow points AGO......

There is a simple REASON..why we are NOT going Down & keep going UP......when there are so many people BEARISH for so long & old Bulls have sold out based on daily commentary that we go down this week.....so there is horde of traders who have turned bearish on barrage of bearish call.....

Most technicians I follow......are scared of this bull RUN and are trying very hard to "talk this market DOWN"

Most important one is Carter Worth from Oppenheimer..who has been fighting this uptrend since 950 in S&P 500......

Let us look @ RSI in major indices after Friday's close :

S&P 500 66.30

Nasdaq 63.33

Dow 66.92

These numbers are "fair valuation" for any bull market..so we have room to go to high 70 with time...previously we did go to 76+ in all indices...so it is NOT unreasonable to expect to touch 80 in "blowoff" period which MAY be straight ahead from 3rd week of September...

It IS also interesting to note that we HIT 09 HIGHS on Friday in S&P 500 & Nasdaq intraday..Dow also came close to hitting 09 high but missed by fraction.......

Volume on Thursday & Friday was Higher than recent average...which is also a very reliable technical indicator....Volume + new 09 high......means better things to come.....

YES...next 2 weeks MAY be low volume due to holidays..BUT we MAY work HIGHER in Indices to 09 HIGHS......

I have seen these patterns many times in the past...that we keep building this market HIGHER because of too many bearish bets.....

Bears have been too-early.....and will get burned real bad......

NOBODY has the "intelligence or financial muscle to tell markets what to do"...many have tried in the past but all of them have failed......same will happen NOW.....

Some were LUCKY to catch the trend for part of the way..but then they lose it all by getting carried away......Robert Prechter comes to mind who called for crash in 1987 but kept making more bearish calls to Dow 400..we only went to 1700 area..so he missed it by 1300 points which IS a miss of 76.5%.......

Even when i look @ RSI of many stocks, it gives me the impression that this market is "far from frothy"..and I simply fail to see where bears are getting their facts......TA is a science and it is easy to see IF we are in "dangerous territory"...which we are NOT........

Bears & followers of bears must not mistake normal pullbacks of 3% to 5% as any indicator of change in trend.....severe pullback are of 9% magnitude......Since July we have NOT had any pullbacks of more than 2% intraday......so a pullback of 3% CAN be absorbed in this bull run anytime.....

So here is the RSI of leading stocks as of Friday and you be the Judge if BEARS have any leg to stand ON :

AAPL...64.59
RIMM..48.38
GS.....56.59
GE.....58.35
AGU....57.49
POT....42.25
TSL....53.30
SOL....54.99


Above RSI numbers are telling me that all of the above are "great buys"...numbers do not lie...but bears DO.....

Yes...it is important to keep an eye on RSI in both indices & individual stocks...80+ is overbought...but we are far from it.......

Good luck with your OWN analysis & comfort level with "cross current of markets"..nothing goes UP in straight line but RSI is a fairly reliable guide to frothiness.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

12 comments:

madmax said...

SALEEM

Great blog!! Will we correct at al this week
I got some dry powder for a pull back

I am really looking at getting some MRK i like the story

Cheers to all

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

Thanks for your feedback.

Always buy stock based on future prospect & valuation.....not all stock go down when market corrects.

Remember even on major slump days 33% of stocks are UP....

I have no clue about MRK..as I do not follow.

Good luck with your decision on MRK...

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

It's my belief we are in an up trend. What I'm anticipating is a short breather coming up. A drop to scare out the early buyers in the rally then a continuance. Looks like V finally broken 70 much to my surprise. Not much upside with an 80 target.

Best Regards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

Pullbacks are part of any healthy market.....

Biggest contrary indicator is so many bears have been out for months with their dire prediction of market crash....so many traders are out of this market waiting & waiting for this pullback.....which has disappeared from the scene for NOW.....

IF i can take a GUESS 1100 in S&P is where we will have a 7% to 9% pullback.....in the meantime MAYBE 3% pullback which is routine.

Market is very TRICKY..nobody knows which sector/stock will come into play....

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

NVDA showing some conviction.

I expect it to get slammed by analyst.

Best Regards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

NVDA has returned to profitability...39 cents 1/11

NVDA is making 52 wk highs..which is a good thing....

Once we have 3% pullback MRVL,AMZN,RIMM,AAPL,BIDU...will lead the charge......

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

Unusual selling activity in the Shanghai index -6%, while Hang Sing is -1.86%, yet media is keying in on the smaller Shanghai market as a scare tactic.

Best Regards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

Shanghai is a small casino....hang seng was pretty tame...DAX & CACS were down less than .8%....

We will show by close that Shanghai was a non-event.

Saleem

c said...

SALEEM

Good morning to you sir

Looks liek we got a market sell off
Japan nad Eurpoe sold off too.

Do you think this is the big correction?

thanks
Best to all

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

NO...this is NOT the big correction...It is a selling in the morning...means time to buy whatever you like......

I trust in RSI.....

Saleem

c said...

SALEEm

thanks for your feedback

I can see that the market is recovering
Great
Looking at MRK, GE and GS. POT sold off too, a possible buy

regards to all

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

These AM selling gives "great entry point" for many stocks....

This IS a market for buy & hold...look @ AAPL...no selling just brief pullback????

Good luck with you buy !!!!

Saleem