Friday, March 4, 2011

How is market reacting to Oil @ $104.42 ???

So... here we are, Oil closed @ $104.42 on Friday.......

S&P 500 closed @ 1321.15 down .74%

IF we take the 30 month high of S&P 500 which was 1344.07, we are Down 22.92 points or 1.71%.....

IF you ask skeptics/pundits/Guru's of CNBC....they will not be able to justify S&P 500 being down just 1.71% from its high when Oil is @ record high.....they were all set for 1175 when oil was below $100????

Many technicians were saying that 1320 in S&P 500 is a "major resistance"..guess what..we closed today above that feared number, on the day of record price for oil???

You may ask....what is keeping this market so high ?

The simple answer could be, that Libyan situation will be resolved one way or the other & Oil price PREMIUM will come down........

Wall Street is predicting that worldwide economy will be fine in the long run.......

BUT..there is a problem with stocks behaviour in certain sectors.....look @ Autos,Banks,Solar which are lagging big time......

It is critical that traders / investors recognize "lack of participation" quickly......

It is interesting how RSI have aligned in all indices as listed below :

Dow 53.53

Nasdaq 53.63

S&P 500 53.85

It used to be that Dow was flirting with highest reading while other indices were lagging, especially Nasdaq......NOT anymore....

RSI is telling me that indices are all set to take out old highs in a hurry.....

Market TAPE is also telling me that Technology will be the-best sector for the upcoming run...

It is important to note the shift in market preference, certain sectors are out of favour for now.

It is also important to buy & keep stocks with a balance of Fundamental & technical knowledge. Market is NOT lifting all boats & traders / investors are getting sloppy.TAPE is telling you to PRUNE many stocks, If they come back in favour then you can get on board.

Here is weighting of my portfolio as of close today:

RIMM 49.91%

RVBD 35.16%

NVDA 14.93%

My portfolio is UP 1.33%...under performance is attributable to FFIV, which has departed from my portfolio.

Good luck with your weekend strategy session.

Next post Monday around 1PM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

7 comments:

c said...

JUST AWESOME ANALYSIS

I am Proud to say I know you

thanks for sticking with us.
best to all

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

Thanks for your compliment.

It is a pleasure to put my analysis VS guru's non-analysis..so everyone can see that i do not think like herd....ever.

Saleem

Djovanny said...

next week s&p 50 dma will cross 200 dma on (weekly chart)first time in 7 years . last time when it happened market was in bull mode over 3 years
how important this event ? Saleem

Djovanny said...

this is rhetorical question . i think we all know the answer , i would like to here your point of view

Stocks100 said...

Hi Djovanny,

Technically market has been in a "major bull move" for a long time now....

The-best thing that this market has is skeptism from technicians & gurus......they are all trying to analyze what has happened..instead of looking ahead.....

I have not seen this kind of "sustained UP move" EVER......

CMF is getting better & better as $ allocation is coming back in stocks....

Saleem

c said...

Saleem

Dennis Gartman
is screaming to buy gold, this morning!

I am glad that I got SLW

thanks

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

Silver looks good $$$

Saleem