Indices were in freefall & took out many stops in the process.When indices were near lows & RSI in 29, short covering started in a big way.
Many rallies start with short covering, BUT we are in hyper economic news environment. Thursday before open is jobless claims & Friday the mother of all economic report Jobs, Jobs & Jobs.....
Indices were all green @ close, after 7 days of selling.
New 52 wk lows were 267 in NYSE & 179 in Nasdaq......
As summer has been identified as challenging for markets with many catalysts gone for few months.
Exposure needs to be low in summer, i am trying to contain @ 50% MAX
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil UP
AH Gold Down
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
9 comments:
S
Good morning
Look at EVEP
It is rocking
Best to all
Hi C,
You should tell me BEFORE it ROCKS !!!!
What happened to EVEP to jump ?
Saleem
S
It is huge is Ohio
New oil and Gas finds
Biggest in America
2 upgrades and I believe more to come,
It ahas over 100 acres reserved and is drilling a least 9 wells.
pay a 4.5% divi and is in agreement with CHK on oil gas development,
EV Energy target raised to $71 from $52 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital raised its target on EV Energy (EVEP) as the firm expects the company to benefit from Chesapeake Energy's (CHK) report on its initial Utica shale drilling results. The firm maintains an Outperform rating on EV. :theflyonthewall.com
hope that this helps
Hi C,
Thanks for RBC analysis on EVEP..looks very interesting $$$$
Saleem
Saleem
this is a better explanation of EVEP:
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WF research report 18-May-10 05:46 pm
EVEP research; Q1 weak. lowering '10 DCF/u
WF report 5/18/10
EV Energy Partners, L.P.
EVEP: Q1 Results Below Forecast--Lowering 2010 Estimates
Operational Issues Weigh On Q1 Production, But Impact Temporary
• Key Takeaways. Q1 results were below our forecast. EVEP experienced a number of weather and operational issues during Q1 that negatively impacted production. While the majority of these issues have been resolved, production over the balance of the year is likely to be below our previous expectations. Consequently, we are lowering our 2010 DCF per unit estimate to $3.42 from $3.55. EVEP sold $5MM of unproved acreage during Q1. Management expects to monetize additional higher-risk acreage over the course of the year (e.g. Marcellus and Utica-Collingwood Shales). We are maintaining our Market Perform rating on EVEP as the partnership's growth outlook (i.e. 2-3% estimated distribution CAGR) appears fairly reflected in the current unit price. Notwithstanding, our growth outlook could prove conservative if EVEP is able to acquire assets at a faster rate (i.e. above $150MM/year) and/or lower multiple (i.e. below 5.0x EBITDA) than our forecast.
• Q1 Results Below Forecast. Q1 EBITDA of $32.2MM was below our forecast of $35.9MM primarily due to lower production and higher lease operating expenses. DCF per unit of $0.68 was also below our estimate of $0.86. EVEP increased its quarterly distribution by $0.001 to $0.756, which was in line with our expectations. Distribution coverage in Q1 was 0.87x, or a cash flow deficit of $3.0MM. To note, EVEP was burdened by distribution payments on new units issued in conjunction with its previously announced Appalachia acquisition in Q1, but will not receive the cash flow benefit of the new acquisition until Q2.
• EVEP Likely To Monetize Noncore, Unproved Average. On March 31, 2010, EVEP entered into an agreement to sell unproved acreage for $4.8MM. Management indicated that the partnership is likely to monetize additional acreage over the course of the year through farm-outs, JVs, and direct sales. To note, EVEP holds 4,000 net Marcellus Shale acres in West Virginia. We estimate the partnership could monetize its interest for $12-20MM based on comparable transaction multiples in the region. In addition, EVEP has a sizeable position in Michigan (i.e. fourth-largest producer in the state), which has received increased industry attention of late due to successful horizontal drilling results by EnCana Corp. to the Utica-Collingwood Shale (underlies EVEP’s Antrim Shale).
Valuation Range: $32.00 to $35.00
Investment Thesis: EVEP's growth will likely be fueled by drop-downs of mature oil and gas properties from GP sponsor EnerVest, which currently owns an estimated $1.5-2.0 billion of reserves. While EVEP's visible long-term growth profile, conservative business model, and relatively strong balance sheet are competitive advantages, these factors are fairly reflected in EVEP's current valuation, in our view. About 65% of EVEP's distribution is tax deferred.
Hi C,
Thanks for detailed report on EVEP.
Saleem
Saleem,
You were right about there is no support in sight for the market. It looks like 2008 one more time. VXX is spiking up. Is this good to start VXX or it is too late? Thanks.
Michael
Hi Michael,
RSI in S&P 500 is 27.32......
It is time to start getting long in stock of your choice....
I have added LVS today......
Saleem
Saleem,
Thanks for your comment. Sometimes fear has caused me lost a lot of money in the past because I sold at the bottom or bought reverse direction stocks at the bottom. I will look for buying. Thanks.
Michael
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