This week S&P 500 was UP 96.63 points from low of 1074.77, this was a move UP of 8.99%....
Friday we closed @ 1155.46, RSI @ 48.13
Oil closed @ $82.98 +4.8% for the week
Gold closed @ $1635.80 +.8% for the week
News flow have been better which was anticipated by market.
Europe is in its final stage of sorting its debt mess.
Individual investors have been bearish as per latest reading, slightly less bearish than March 09 lows.
As we are heading into earnings season, there is a very good chance that we may move higher towards higher end of the trading range.
CMF in S&P 500 is positive with a reading of +.102
50 DMA is 1177.87, which we should cross easily this week....
Next target is 1195.86, followed by 1220.39 then 1230.71........
IF earnings are good & guidance ABOVE expectations...PLUS a resolution of Greek bailout,we have a very good chance of ending October above 200 DMA which is 1277.32.....
As we are entering Q4, which is a strong Q, there is a very good chance that we may establish a new HIGHER trading range.....
October to January is a strong UPTREND cycle...hopefully with a little help from politicians in Europe & USA we may see a strong TAPE.......
Market is dealing with so-called downgrades of European nations in stride, NO PANIC on Friday...which is a very good thing.
Biggest reason for my OPTIMISM is that we traded in a very narrow range for 9 wk from Aug to first week in October, this was a major base building where two low points were 1101.74 in August & 1074.77 in wk 1 of October...a narrow RETEST of support by 26.97 points......
All in all, i think we have seen test & retest of lows for Q4.....
Here is my $ weighting :
MOS 30.18% bought on Friday @ $52.05
RIMM 28.11%
FCX 17.08%
LULU 14.15%
CNQ 10.48%
As you can clearly see, that i am heavy in non-tech.
Good luck with your OWN view of TAPE & comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
13 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I am also very light on tech with only AMZN & WWWW. I think tech might bring more reactions like APKT with weak initial responses. I'd love to pick up a RVBD at $16 or so!
Did FCX get lucky with their workers' strike timing? The workers can't have too much leverage with copper prices depressed at the moment.
I love the materials still--will we finally have a good kickoff with AA? Let the earnings begin...:)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Stars are being aligned for Q4..best time for major gains.
FCX strike in Indonesia is falling appart based on latest report...they are reducing their expectations & workers are trickling back to work...
Many weak stocks have miss priced in......
Lets hope Merkel & Sarkozy can agree on resolution in their meeting today....
Saleem
Saleem,
Thanks for the detail and informative analysis. I did not watch CNBC last Friday. However, my friend watched it and told me that CNBC said last Friday's drop was a pattern of head and shoulder that means there is 10-15% further down. Hopefully, this is not the case. We need some more days of rally to shake of bear and scare all shorts.
Michael
Hi Michael,
Thanks for your feedback.
NOT watching CNBC is good for your financial health.
Ask that guru, what is happening today ?
Where is that 15% correction ?
Sit back relax & enjoy the ride UP in the strongest Q.....
Saleem
Michael
I too saw J Cramer Head adn shoulder chart
Gloom and Doom show!
Guess J Cramer is wrong again
My the way looking good for APPLE adn TOT is a blast was up graded ..
I aslo bought EPD I al looking at ETP pays big and way over sold --oil patch play take a look.
NETFLEX is Popping--- a big change in billing! this could be a play ??
Good luck to all
SALEEM
what a recovery
Hurray
thought as to buys here is appreciated.
C
Hi C,
Many mining stocks are near lows..they are buy.....
TCK,FAS are strong buys....
Saleem
SALEEM
THanks
I like FCX and TCK
FCX we both got on at $34.74 that is a goodie!!!!
IS it safe to double up on FCX??
Regards
APPLE is ruling today
1 million 4s phone are pre ordered..wooWho
Hi C,
FCX is a gold & copper play..hedge fund favourite...
YES..doubling is more than OK @ these prices.....
Saleem
Saleem,
Wow, what's a come back! I was traveling this morning and did not listen to what caused the rally?
Thanks for your comment. I used to listen to Cramer before and thought he was genius because all of his recommended stock got pop after hour. But after I got burn many times with his "buy high sell low" recommendation, I stopped watching his show. I wonder why his show survived that long. Thanks.
Michael
Hi Michael,
IF you read my BLOG again, it will tell you that Europe is near resolution of debt issue....any hint of that will cause a big boost in market......what brings it down WILL take it UP.....
We are well above 50 DMA now......
Jimmy the Cramer has NO CLUE about markets..he has been SCARED of this market for a while now.....
He only chase stocks which has moved UP 100%.......
He has NO HEAD & WEAK SHOULDER ?
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Sold off my FCX at $35.75 ($3.95 gain for me) to buy some GHDX and JKS. At this point in the market cycle, switching to smaller caps should yield better average returns. FCX has ~10% short-term upside from here in my view while the other two look like 20% and 25%. The other choices I could have sold were AGU and BAC that I knew for certain fell within my 3-day complicated rules. I have plenty of commodity exposure in general, so FCX with the lingering strike was the throwaway.
Everything looking great this morning and feeling comfortable with the 100% exposure still despite the huge rally! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Agree with your thesis. Booking profit & reploying funds in underperformers is a good strategy.
I have also bought CSIQ this morning..same logic..risk / reward is compelling after major downtrend....
Saleem
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