VIX our famous barometer of "fear", is crashing down. On Friday it closed @ 20.63, down 3.96% when markets were unchanged overall.
Is VIX telling us to be confident on the bullish side?
Indices & VIX are showing a very different TAPE than before......
All indices are above 50 & 200 DMA....
All indices are showing green CMF.....
Indices technical & fundamental picture are showing a marked improvement, before there was a big question mark IF Nasdaq can go above 200 DMA........
It is hard to argue with the technical picture of indices. It is telling us to go with the flow.....
VIX is also telling us, that fear has subsided. Market participant are not buying VIX as a hedge strategy. VIX plunge is telling us that market sentiment has substantially improved.
Now the question is, what kind of market are we entering in 2012 ?
2012 MAY project a different tone in market.
Markets goes through discounting process of any & all issues facing world economy.
MAYBE we have completed discounting process & MAY have a more normal market.
Normal markets may be defined by improving fundamentals in US economic picture.
China & India are trying to stabilize their economy & may face little more uncertainty in the short term.
Europe may be on the mend with most issues are known. Recession in Europe may be short lived.
I personally of the opinion, that worlds largest economy which is US will carry more weight going forward.
In a normal market, usual range of RSI will come into play. RSI @ 70 is a sell & 40 is a buy generally speaking, there are exceptions all the time, this applies to market & stocks.
S&P 500 closed @ 1277.81 with RSI @ 59.89
Next resistance is around 1300 area.......
It is important to factor CHANGES in market TONE.......
Here is my portfolio weighting as of Friday's close :
RIMM 25.58%
AMZN 22.33%
LVS 16.41%
M 14.60%
RVBD 11.83%
FIO 9.25%
Good luck with your OWN analysis of markets & individual stocks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
7 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I feel like I need some CLF in my portfolio. I have no idea what to sell though...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
You can reduce weighting on stocks which has big gain?
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Normally that would be exactly what I do. This year I'm taking a different approach and letting big winners continue to run as long as they are under my expected fair value. I am thinking of this year as a 2009 type year--a year in which I underperformed dramatically in the second half because I'd always sell too early...this is my attempt to learn from that mistake.
I'm probably looking to sell RVBD as I'm a little concerned about the quarter, and my tech exposure is rather high? otherwise BAC and OCZ are other candidates I'm considering.
CLF's weakness this morning gives me more time which is good. OCZ reports after the close, and it is ramping to fairer value quickly and maybe the earnings report will provide a good exit?
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Any strategy is a good strategy as long it works out in the end.
Good luck with your switch.
Saleem
Morning Saleem
Any new buys todauy
I got some CSX, BGS
Sold SCCO --down graded--May buy some back?
Looking at EVEP
THN
C
Hi C,
SCCO is down 63 cents?
Here is another chance for you to buy AMZN?
Saleem
SALEEM
I got some AMZN
$179
Let us rock and roll
SCCO is at $30.42 down $62
EVEP is up again here come $175
C
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