Almost 12 years ago.......

On March 10th, 2000....Nasdaq closed @ 5048.62

On March 24th, 2000.....Nasdaq high was 5078.86

That was almost 12 years ago.......

12 years ago, there was "deafening euphoria" about markets prospect.

Sky was the limit....

Sales did not matter

Earnings did not matter

Eyeballs were the only measurement tool

NY cabbies were making more money in markets than many other professionals

Every small investor was in the market with all their money, borrowed & all.......

We all know, how that movie ended......

For next 2.5 yrs market went straight down, low of 1108.49 was made on October 10th, 2002...that was a loss of 3970.37 points or a loss of 78.17%...these are all Nasdaq points from high of 5078.86......

BUT from October 10th 2002 low, we went UP for next 5 years to 2859.12 by October 31st 2007...a gain of 1750.63 points or a gain of 157.93%.........

SO.....here we are in March of 2012 & we have moved UP to 2976.19 points in 4.5 years.....a gain of 117.07 points or a whopping gain of 4.09% in 4.5 years........

SO...in this rally of 2012, we have very little participation by retail. Small investors are so scared, that they do not want any part of this "dramatic / orchestrated rally"..........?????

SO..how great of a rally was this, since end of the year?

IF we look @ S&P 500 stocks, a conservative sample......

On Dec 30th, 2011..... S&P 500 closed @ 1257.60

On March 2nd, 2012...S&P 500 closed @ 1369.63

Total gain in 2 months & 2 days = 112.03 or a HUGE GAIN of 8.91%.......some stocks do that in 10 mts of trading?

BUT if you ask any participant, they have a "universal opinion" that we have come too far too fast.....I wish this statement was factually true...

This is the very reason, that we have lot of room on the upside.

The more small investors are skeptical, higher this rally will go.

Small investors have a predictable track record of selling near lows & buying near HIGHS........

SO..when your neighbour / cab driver is invested & talking about stocks, then you know ..its time to sell....currently, there is a deafening silence from those two group of indicator.....???

Currently, Kass, Adami & most traders are expecting a pullback. Jimmy the Cramer saying nothing will happen until jobs report & indices will be under pressure.

Jobs report is expected to be above consensus of 210,000.........

Bottom line is.....think next 5 years & you may have a chance to be UP HUGE......

In a five year period from 2002 to 2007...some stocks were UP 6012% CELL or 5269% AKAM or a lowly 2591% for poor AAPL.......

Some food for thought, for this weekend.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem