Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Indices closed down .49% to .54% on weaker durable goods.....

Indices were facing a rough start, after durable goods came in lower than expected.

S&P 500 low was 1397.20, closing @ 1405.54.High for 2012 was 1419.15. The pullback so far was 21.95 points or 1.55%.

RSI @ 62.12

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.62 to 1 in NYSE & 2.26 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.69 to 1 in NYSE & 1.87 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk highs were in the lead again, 55 in NYSE & 77 in Nasdaq

VIX closed Down .77% @ 15.47

Oil closed Down @ $105.41

Gold closed Down @ $1657.90

AH ER :

MOS Down 1.8%

RHT UP 8.58%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, indices continue to show resiliency despite weak economic news today. TAPE today was typical of mild pullback which we have seen since end of October. These minor pullbacks gives an entry point to many traders, who are very quick in getting on board.IBD is saying "market under pressure"

RIMM reports AH.

Here is the consensus of  about 48 to 49 analysts who cover RIMM. 47 of those analysts are well defined bears. Only 2 have positive take on RIMM based on valuation / potential. In my entire trading / investing of multiple decade, i have never come across negativity with disdain for any other company.

Sales consensus Q4 ending Feb 2012 $4.53 Billion
EPS consensus Q4 81 cents

This will give RIMM consensus Sales for FY ending Feb 2012 of $18.77 billion
EPS Consensus $4.14

Guidance consensus for Q1 FY 2013 Sales $4.26 billion, EPS consensus 66 cents
Consensus for YE Feb 2013 is Sales of $17.32 Billion & EPS of $2.74.......

RIMM closed today @ $13.67.....PE for current transition year of 2013 is 4.99

What amazes me as a fundamental analyst, how can Wall Street justify such a low PE when sky is suppose to be falling for RIMM, Still they are projecting $2.74 cents in earning, for next four quarters?

Option is predicting a move of 15% after earning is out, that will be a move +- of $2.05......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

18 comments:

c said...

Saleem

Loads of rumors on RIMM

WOW such coverage and news

So far market is looking for a pull back--down $70

Energy and copper are stinko's

Have a good en
C

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

After close RIMM will give a "reality check" to all analysts...who generally dont know which end is up.....

Market testing support again....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I found some info that indicated the official China PMI will come in at above 51 due to their lack of seasonal adjustments. I suspect this would greatly increase the risk appetite.

I may purchase some commodity stocks today at some point. I'm looking at CF, FCX, and DOW currently for long term, and may additionally look at SWC, CLF, or STLD for trades at first and see if action follows through.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I'm also interested in ZNGA post-secondary today, but not sure because the chart is failing at resistance.

I will probably pick up a little today at some point and see what happens.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Your timing is impeccable again.

Good luck with your dd.

Saleem

c said...

SALEEM

WOW
RIMM is green
good for you Sir
Amazon is still way strong here..
Shippers are down some --may be time for NAT , SLF , DRYS, DSX just a thought

C

c said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

Apparently China PMI is a Sunday night release, so I'm not sure when I'll purchase those commodities--maybe tomorrow morning instead.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with your ongoing updated analysis of China PMI release.

Saleem

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

RIMM should be OK...

Shippers are out of my league.

Saleem

Up said...

Saleem

Descending triangle on RIMM, if it break down, we are in trouble. But like you, I believed the future.

Look like we just got out of our major holding on time before this drop.

c said...

UP

Hello

Are you in RIMM or AMAZON??

v Best to ya
C

Stocks100 said...

Hi Up,

YES..Sale of AMZN,LEN & MS was PERFECT...booking profit before pullback is always nice.

RIMM is a very long term hold for me..as i firmly believe it will turnaround in 2012.....

Traders forget AAPL was a $5 stock once..when its future was very shaky.......

Good luck to you in RIMM & other holdings.

Saleem

c said...

SALEEM

Hi

I bought 500 shares of SFL at $15.05
Looking for $16 trade
I am now at 145 % invested
c

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

Hopefully correction is ending ALREADY....

145% will get you 300% in time.

Good luck with SFL...

Saleen

Up said...

C

I am out of AMZN the day Saleem sold, but still holding RIMM. AMZN will be the stock I will buy when dust is clear.

Saleem

Yes, AAPL was a $5 stock, and people saying AAPL is going to die at that time. But since they still have a well know products and needed someone to present it well to the public. They asked Job back as a ceo, and the rest we all know what happen. Now I think RIMM is on the same boat as AAPL.

c said...

SALEEM

if ya get the time
read this on SDRL:

SDRL ups stake in NADL 28-Mar-12 09:17 am
http://www.seadrill.com/modules/module_1...

C

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

SDRL got 75 million shares in that placement......

I do not follow that sector @ all, thus have no idea what this means in terms of SDRL stock appreciation or business model.

Saleem