S&P 500 UP 12% in Q1, best since 1988 !!!!!

First quarter of 2012 created many milestones, S&P 500 had the-best Q1 since 1988. S&P 500 was UP 12%. Other indices also did well, Dow UP 8% & Nasdaq UP 19%. SO, if you had left money in any of these sector, you had a headache free decent gain. These gain are for first 3 months of the year, we have 9 more months to go.

How we do from here is always up for debate, those who know too much have been the-most worried about this market. Most technicians have predicted trouble every 10 S&P points higher with the help of "smoothing mechanism"

What i see from hereon, is a stock pickers market. I also see a  need to book gain when you see it. I expect market to be more choppy than before.It is going to be "volatile" based on news. Positive news will give you a chance to book gain for the day. On negative news day, it gives you a chance to buy.

Individual investors are expecting market to fall from hereon. This opinion was shared by 40%.

Chinese PMI for March came in better than expected 53.1% against expectations of 50.5%. March normally sees a jump of 3% from Feb, it was slightly less than that average this time.

Q1 earning reports will give us more volatility, which starts in few days.

Here is a small list of stocks with their returns for Q1:

KORS +70.97%
LNKD +61.86%
LULU +60.16%
AAPL +48.04%
ZNGA +39.74%
LEN     +38.6%
LVS     +34.73%
MS       +29.81%
COH     +26.61%
BIDU    +25.16%
CMG     +23.76%
OTEX +19.59%
RVBD +19.49%
AMZN +16.99%
FCX     +3.4%
JCP      +.80%
GOOG <.7%>
RIMM <1.36%>
CNQ    <11.21%>

As you can clearly see, that most traders miss the-best performing stocks or are too quick to book gains. The only lesson which can be derived, is to be lot more patient @ the start of a bull market. BUT we are approaching 3 years of this bull run, when gains may be @ risk.

For me personally, Q1 has been a mixed approach, initially rapid trading in good stocks, then got stuck with rest, then  rapid trading again. I displayed utmost conviction in my picks, which surprised many. BUT in the end, it is the result which counts.

Here is my Q1 result:

Currency gains = 16.09%

Stock trading gains = 37.84%

Total gains for Q1 = 53.93%

It is important to tabulate "real performance" against many benchmarks. It must be "real time" not a snapshot of  good week.

We all have 9 more months to go in this year, based on how it started, there is a very good chance that we all will be able to improve our own performance further.

In the end, it is all about due diligence, conviction & patience. Those who follow,  fad of the day / moment generally do not perform well.

Good luck with Q2, starts on Monday !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem