Sunday, June 24, 2012

Market @ crossroad......

Market has been dealing with too many negatives for many months.

- First major negative has been slowing world economy.

- Second was ongoing European debt mess.

On the first account, there IS consensus now, that indeed China, Europe, US, India & Brazil has shown pronounced weakness in their economy. Most economists were expecting gradual slowdown, but reality has been fast & steep downtrend all over.

On European debt issue, there is consensus developing, that Greece needs to be given "reasonable amount of years" to bring austerity into play. This will ensure some growth while austerity takes hold.

EU, ECB, IMF all are in-tune with "more to be done" to stabilize Greece & Spain......the pace of resolution / bailout will pick up as we go forward.

In a way we are @ crossroad....

Economic statistics will continue to be downbeat until Fall......

Market IS trying to digest all of the above, but its NOT an easy task.....

Market will swing between HOPE & DISAPPOINTMENT on a weekly basis.

Currently market is leaning towards HOPE, which is why we have NOT made any recent lows.

Based on this HOPE factor, we may see gradual move to 1363.46 first & then IF we get some resolution in EU to 1392.76 area in S&P 500.....

One must NOT get carried away with any hopeful sign in EU.

Worldwide economy IS the-deciding factor in establishing any trading range......based on what the market is telling us, the range seems to be in 1266 to 1392 area +- 30.......

Strongly suggest, aggressive buying around 1290 area & booking profit around 1390 area......which MAY keep repeating until Q4........

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


14 comments:

c said...

SALEEM

so far you spot on

Market in decline
I have taken a beating and it smarts a lot--I may sell some today and of course the market may turn because I sold.....

here is some news on fertilizer stocks:

8:58 AM Dahlman Rose raises its outlook on fertilizer shares, believing they largely reflect the valuation eroding impact of a large crop; given that backdrop, the firm sees only two possible outcomes, both of which point to higher share prices. It upgrades CF and POT to Buy from Sell, AGU, RNF and MOS to Buy from Hold, and IPI and UAN to Hold from Sell. (Read the comments on this)

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I might survive today?:

WWWW initiated buy
MOS upgraded to buy
PAY initiated long-term buy
CTXS partners with CSCO
ERY hedge

Good luck to all!

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

Do what you need to do....rest we do not control.....

Saleem

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

I do not monitor any of your stocks except LEN...so let me know @ the end of the day.......how you fared.

Nice to have so many buys & a hedge on a down day.....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

New home sales are unbelievable. Supply down to 4.7 months!

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

LEN is the only bright spot in my portfolio today....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

Dividend yield on CLF is now 5.4%--more crazy stuff...

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

CLF has come down too much..it IS getting in the territory of OVERSOLD....@ $42 it is a screaming buy....

Saleem

c said...

SALEEM

Got back from the dentist--ouch, they are so expensive.

Wow market really sold off
Dropped way low --so I am holding on selling any thing

GLD is Green
POT and AGU are both up....

best to you all
C

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I sold my PFPT at average 14.84 just now. I wanted some funds to buy either CLF, BTU, or NVDA at close. When I can finally sell ERY tomorrow, I'll probably rebuy PFPT, hopefully lower.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

YES...market is weak.......

Saleem

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

I may do some switching also.....

Saleem

c said...

SALEEM

What are you considering for a buy??

Just asking

C

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

I am not sure IF i will make any move...BUT IF i decide to switch..then i will post.

Saleem