Negative & scary commentary is running amok on Wall & Broad, every pundit is reacting to recent data with "dire prediction"
Yes.... some of the recent data IS below consensus, BUT they are not in recession territory.
US did create 69K jobs, after well above consensus numbers in Feb & March...whatever happened to "smoothing mechanism".....
Chinese PMI is above 50, yet the reaction is IF they hit 40 already....
India's GDP was the only "shocker"...i am sure they are working hard to change that.
European unemployment of 11%, is NOT a surprise based on what we see everyday in news.
Canada's GDP came in as expected 1.9% growth .......
Given the magnitude of European debt crisis, world economy is humming along nicely @ almost 2% to 8%.......
Remember back in 2008, world was gripped with fear of a "worldwide recession"...US was given a "failing grade" by all knowing Roubini with a drum roll of recession?????
Bottom line is ..."slower growth is still a growth"....until Europe deals with its mess.......
Can you imagine, IF Europe makes a tough decision to deal with its debt issue.......then imagine where world economy will be & where world stock market will go?
OK.....world markets HAVE reacted to the dire news of slower growth, hedgies may push S&P 500 another 25 points....BUT then we are going to have a "sharp rally".......it could be a V bottom finally.....
How many traders know, that back in 1999 S&P 500 earnings was only $39 & we were @ 1460..a lofty multiple of 37.44......now in 2012 we are going to earn record profit in S&P 500 of $105 & we are trading @ 1278.....@ a multiple of 12.17.......any fundamental analysis will tell us that 15 times PE is a realistic expectations....this should take us into all time high @1575....... something to think about in this selling mayhem.....
SO...which stock is holding the-best in this selling frenzy?......
Here is a short list, based on recent high vs closing price on Friday :
AAPL Down 9.7%
CMG Down 10.23%
AMZN Down 10.96%
LULU Down 14.54%
GOOG Down 14.81%
LEN Down 16.82%
COH Down 20.44%
PCLN Down 21.22%
LNKD Down 24.14%
BIDU Down 26.47%
LVS Down 30.79%
JCP Down 39.85%
It is amazing to see "repeatedly" that strong stocks are holding up the-best in a 10% down market.
Markets go UP & markets go DOWN...BUT are we as ready to position for an UP market????
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I am ready for a solid 5+ year bull market in stocks. All we need is real structural reform in certain places in the world instead of patchwork fixes. Every day we inch closer to real solutions, but in the meantime, volatility will likely remain.
Staying appropriately involved and ready for the future is key now. Thanks for helping people see through a lot of the media clutter with your blog and wisdom! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your feedback.
It is very easy to be completely taken over by "fear & hopelessnes" with CNBC relentless thoughtless commentary.
History is on our side, as every situation comes to pass....
Good luck with your strategy.
Saleem
GOOD morning to you Saleem
and all bloggers
What a beautiful day out side---Great day in the neighboorhood!:)
Any way, I saw some green at
PM 7AM. Yahoo
Can only hope that we get a reprive--and go up--yes
thanks for your hard work and analysis--I needed it
Off to work now
C
Hi C,
Thanks for your feedback, i am glad that it was helpful.
Good luck today.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Bought NUAN @ 19.82.
I liked what they said last quarter and their product is gaining traction in multiple areas.
Expecting a decent/nice close today :).
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with NUAN....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Assuming we get a snapback rally in materials stocks at some point, would you rather go with a CLF/X chart that is extremely oversold or a STLD chart which is showing surprising relative strength?
Thanks in advance for the input! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
STLD CMF is less negative & seems like selling pressure has subsided.
STLD gets my thumbs UP !!!!
Saleem
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