Friday, September 14, 2012

Indices closed UP .40% to .89%.....NICE !!!!

Indices are making multi-year highs again.

S&P 500 closed @ 1465.77, high was 1474.51

RSI @ 74.74

CMF @ 0.121

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.71 to 1 in NYSE & 3.49 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.19 to 1 in NYSE & 1.91 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 465 in NYSE & 217 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 3.27% @14.51

Oil closed @ $99

Gold closed @ $1772.10

Canadian $ closed @ 102.90, 13 month high

In my portfolio :

Sold AUY

Portfolio is LVS

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included LVS,
LEN,TCK,BIDU,CLF,LNKD,SU,FB,ZNGA,
JDSU,CIEN,FNSR,AEM,FCX,FFIV......

Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

Despite the large hedge, I was able to manage a 1.1% gain today. For the week, huge gains in ELOQ, GRPN, and PFPT, and a nice YELP trade helped power the portfolio (no longer holding PFPT & YELP, but looking for pullbacks). Here's the portfolio now:

TZA - 29.8%
ELOQ - 9.8%
GGC - 8.8%
GWAY - 8.8%
SPLK - 8.6%
APKT - 8.2%
GHDX - 7.2%
WPRT - 5.8%
GRPN - 5.8%
OCZ - 5.0%
APWC - 2.3%
(cash) - 0.02%

Some of my big gainers this week I'm sure are ready to rest, but I still consider ELOQ undervalued and GRPN is still looking good chart and potential catalyst-wise. I think GGC is such a perfect play in this environment of good housing and low nat gas prices. APKT is a new addition today that I think is ready to break out. I continue to believe all the bad news is in OCZ and the next catalyst should be highly positive.

Overall, despite my pre-Thursday misgivings about potential QE, I think what Ben Bernanke did was perfect, and will work to force businesses and consumers to spend and get this economy moving. It is not so much about the $40B in new MBS purchases monthly, but more the promise of QE4ever. If it wasn't for the pre-fiscal cliff slowdown (which Bernanke acknowledges the Fed can't help), this market and economy would be rocketing even more. As it is, I'm not sure if the market can look past the sluggish hiring and spending when we see the tangible evidence of it. I'm not sure whether this means I'll keep my hedge on or not--I'm in watch and see mode for now.

Based on market RSIs, it is likely we see some market digestion. I think this comes in the form of distribution in the "safe" stocks and accumulation of the "growth" stocks. Overall the averages might churn, but I think many stocks will continue to perform well.

I am looking again at the insurers and brokers. With the stock market looking up, long term rates rising, and M&A activity likely to pick up, many stocks in these sectors can do well I believe. My watch list includes MET and MS, but I'll do some homework on some others too.

The outlook for commodity stocks is difficult for me right now. They've had such a huge run for two weeks in a row (China stimulus last week, Fed this week) that I feel foolish buying now, but I'm also not sure we'll see much pullback. My best thesis would be to buy on negative pre-announcements or bad earnings because likely we are at trough earnings power right now. My current top choice is BTU given its great export business and continued profitability throughout this tough time.

That's about it for my thoughts. Have a great weekend! :)

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Nice thoughtful recap of everything which impacts stocks.

I am glad that you came out ahead despite large Hedge...

I have pulled out everything plus some more from market.....mostly thanks to my Canadian $ exposure which has increased my equity by 87.08% YTD.....

Every time i pull out money, my luck overall is much better......then i rebuilt my portfolio from excess margin only..has worked like a charm lately.

I am planning to buy 3 stocks on some pullback.

I am looking @ FFIV,DNKN,BIDU..but price has to be right.....

Enjoy your weekend.

Saleem