Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Constructive close today......

Indices started UP went down & tried to reach breakeven. S&P 500 was the sole green close.

S&P 500 closed @ 1412.16

RSI @ 38.66

CMF @ -0.072

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.33 to 1 in NYSE & .71 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.33 to 1 in NYSE & 1.23 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 78 in NYSE & 0 in Nasdaq

VIX closed UP 4.44% @ 18.60

Oil closed @ $86.24

Gold closed @ $1719.10

AH ER :

CRUS UP .91%

V UP 1.8%

OTEX Down 7.33%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

Chinese PMI came in @ 50.2% vs consensus of 50.3%......clear sign that Chinese economy had a "soft landing"....

About market, all three indices staged a "higher low", a good sign that we MAY be nearing the end of this correction in October. Commodity stocks are having a good run based on seasonality. We should be moving UP as market "looks ahead".....who knows MAYBE stock market can predict who will win the "white house".

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

8 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I finally got a chance to take a break tonight. Here's some other points from the CRUS CC:

1. There is new interest in their audio devices for echo and noise cancellation and noise suppression supporting things like mobile phones, tablets, TVs, and possibly eventually everything in the home including toasters (think Jetsons he said). Their resources this quarter and next have been largely focused on their "largest customer" (AAPL) due to the revenue opportunity there, but the industry continues to move in a positive direction for other devices to start using CRUS products.

2. Margins and margin guidance is in the low 50s (vs low-mid 50s prior) due to the accelerated ramps from their largest customer which can affect yields, require expedites, or multiple/fast testing programs, etc. Given their fast ramp, he was pleased with margins and feels comfortable with forward margin guidance.

3. The 15% sequential revenue decline guidance for the March quarter is CRUS's current internal model and he thought it useful to share with investors given the large guide up for next quarter. He said don't get overly fixated on the down 15% after that because a lot will be happening between now and then.

4. The LED unit guidance was roughly cut in half from 5-10M units to 3-5M units due to customer delays in release dates unrelated to CRUS. He said they have many design wins and look forward to their customers rolling out those devices.

Overall I thought the conference call was fine, with nothing especially positive or negative. The numbers are what really do the talking here. I definitely plan to keep holding.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Thanks for your detailed write up of cc for CRUS.....

AH TAPE was positive for CRUS after initial hesitation.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I was pretty excited seeing those initial trades at $44+, but many people are just taking a profit and running any chance they get. When the market tone improves, I expect CRUS to be one of the leaders.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Because of market malaise, many traders are taking whatever they can get in a hurry....$2+ per share in CRUS was good enough for many in AH...some live to chisel few cents per share....

Saleem

c said...

GOOD morning

I got some BIDU at $106.73 up in PM $107.21

APPLE may have put bottom in, we may crawl back over $600

Lets see if we can climb a wall of worry
IBD still says market in correction
PS I bought a subscription to IBD--need something holler
C

Stocks100 said...

Hi C,

Good luck with BIDU....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I am highly disappointed with CRUS's price action, but the portfolio is still up 1.25% overall given everything else is doing nicely. And there is still time for it to come back up some in this nice general tape. Also, I look for PANW to keep charging higher on the back of the FIRE after-earnings move.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

I more than doubled 122% my position in PANW......

Good luck with CRUS...

Saleem