All indices are below 50 DMA. Below expectations earnings dealt a severe blow to investors confidence.
Volume was above average.
S&P 500 @ 1433.19
RSI @ 45.63
CMF @ -0.128
Internals were :
Down volume led by 8.61 to 1 in NYSE & 7.66 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 3.60 to 1 in NYSE & 3.69 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading in NYSE by 81, new lows were leading by 37 in Nasdaq
VIX jumped 13.51% @ 17.06
Oil closed @ $90.05
Gold closed @ $1724
Canadian $ was sharply lower, closing @ 100.68
Portfolio is APKT,BIDU,LVS,LEN,PANW,RIMM,YHOO
Here is my portfolio weighting :
YHOO 19.47% Reports AH Monday
LEN 19.04%
LVS 17.25% Reports AH Monday
BIDU 13.81%
APKT 10.57%
PANW 10.33%
RIMM 9.53%
Exposure 105%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A week that started nicely turned ugly by the end. The only "positive" were some of my stocks making good late day moves up on Friday to mitigate some of the losses. Here's the portfolio as it stands:
GGC - 9.0%
LF - 8.3%
CRUS - 8.0%
GHDX - 8.0%
GWAY - 7.8%
PANW - 7.8%
FIO - 7.8%
SPLK - 7.3%
Z - 7.2%
MLNX - 4.7%
APKT - 4.7%
LNKD - 4.7%
PFPT - 4.3%
ELOQ - 4.2%
CMG - 3.8%
APWC - 2.5%
(cash) - 0.02%
This week I made some more moves to sell some pre-earnings question marks and pick up post-earnings bargains. I've also expanded the portfolio to 16 stocks now--the largest in a while. It always seems like earnings season gives me good ideas, and then I sell off portfolio stocks not displaying positive followthrough as Q3 reporting ends and the overall market direction starts to take over from the company specific drivers.
The general market has turned scary quickly with technology leading the decline. It is interesting to note that the $COMPX is already 6% off its highs and has been fading for a month. Even though Friday was awful with high price and high volume action, I can't help but wonder if that was the worst of it. With sentiment having turned so quickly, and almost every single large cap tech disappointing, a slow end of year seems to be nearly priced in.
Going into some of the smaller company earnings this week, there will likely be a lot of early trepidation and stocks may struggle. Despite this, I think there are definitely companies that can outperform, and I'm hoping I have selected those wisely. Although we may be experiencing an IT/hiring stall, we likely know why (pre-fiscal cliff uncertainty), which makes it easier to discount upfront and rally later. Additionally, housing and consumer spending/sentiment are growing well, and provide the backdrop for a nice rally at some point.
Despite the naysayers, Europe and China seem to be stabilizing/turning up. The systemic risk from these areas has faded, and that gives businesses and consumers at least some greater level of confidence, which then translates into better economic growth. The biggest uncertainty with the US is the election/fiscal cliff, but every day we move closer to certainty, and then the underlying strength of the US can factor in well. I am really looking forward to a great 2013!
Ultimately, we will know the market has fully discounted Q4 when sluggish guidances makes stock prices start down but then they rally positive. Look for this dynamic to really signal the worst is over. For now, companies in the right industries and/or with good stories can still outperform, and I'm attempting to be there.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good analysis of market internals & hopeful scenario....
We both are "more optimistic than gurus"
Saleem
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