GOOG caused the selling in all indices...
S&P 500 near lows of the day @ 1454.87
Internals are negative
Oil Down 3 cents
Gold Down $9.50
Canadian $ Down 55 tick @ 101.70
VIX UP 2.65% @ 15.47
In my portfolio :
Doubled my position in APKT @ $16.48
Portfolio is APKT BIDU LVS LEN PANW RIMM YHOO
Exposure 105%
Most stocks are down
@ 2.55 following are green :
APKT, LEN,JCP,TCK,YUM,FCX,COH,LRCX,
GMCR,STLD,CCJ,ECA,BAC,SNE,GS,CLF.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
PS...was tied up with an important phone call, thus delay in my post.
Saleem
17 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I sold half my WPRT at 30.50 to have funds available for CMG. I've thought about it a lot these last few hours, and I think I will buy before close.
Also, I'm interested to see SNDK after close--I bet the move is large either way.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good strategy to sell first & then look to buy.....CMG
CMG has weakened more since our discussion......
Good luck with CMG !!!
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I did end up buying CMG at 285.12. I'm not positive the short-term read on earnings, but I believe in the long term prospects. In my opinion, Taco Bell is not a threat, valuation is much more reasonable now, the volatility in food costs has abated, and the sentiment is almost totally negative right now. All of these things make it a good investment I believe.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Excellent price on CMG..you are already ahead by $2+++
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
CMG is guiding 2013 comp store sales for flat to low single digits growth. This means essentially all of their growth will come from new store openings, which is problematic for a number of reasons.
Although I think they are underestimating their growth potential, this guidance should weigh on the stock for the next three months.
Luckily I only made this a half position, but I'll have to decide what to do now...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
When fundamentals are going down this fast...then it is prudent to get out of the way......
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
In other news, I listened to the first 30 minutes of RVBD and listening currently to the SNDK calls. RVBD is talking about strong demand for their products (and specifically gave good guidance) despite the macro environment and that is helping the stock in after hours. SNDK sees a favorable NAND supply/demand picture through 2013 as well as gaining market share. I suspect that stock does well tomorrow also.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Additional notes on SNDK: they see margin expansion in Q4 and 2013 due to the favorable supply/demand environment.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for listening to cc of SNDK & RVBD...both good omen for market on Friday......
Even APKT may come to life !!!!
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
APKT had a fantastic day today in light of the overall market. At this time, it remains my favorite pick for the next 6-12 months. Only incompetency or competition could ruin this, and competitors are still too far behind on the technology curve.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
What is your take on PANW below secondary price of $63 on 7 times +++ volume....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I was very surprised after yesterday's strength ahead of the secondary and in the face of all its competitors' weakness that today looked so poor. I thought for sure this would be "buy the news" event. It didn't even do enough volume to cover the secondary amount which was also surprising. Maybe tomorrow will be another story? I'd like to see another day at least before making a major judgement, and really, I'm in it for earnings.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
My issue with PANW today was...who was doing all the selling when secondary is NOT done yet.....4.1 million shares is highest by far since IPO day when it hit 7.5 million....
I could have sold yesterday with decent gain but felt $70 is in the bag.......
Sometimes phantom shares are traded...float is only 27.6 million....just curious?
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
A lot of professionals short the stock when they know they have allocation from the secondary even if it isn't delivered yet. That way they aren't exposed to the price move in the interim. Due to that, it is not unusual to see very high volume after the secondary prices.
I'm sure adding to the selling was people noticing yesterday's moves in the network security stocks and taking advantage of a relatively good day in PANW yesterday to lock in their gains.
Once it breaks the secondary price, a lot of people that initially bought today on the "buy the news" idea will then turn around and sell and wait for the stock to stabilize at some lower level. I actually did this same thing in a trading account today--I was very surprised to see it weaken so much.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your take on PANW.....
SO...average volume 500k...3.6 million shorted / sold....
My surprise that Bookmakers did not support $63 secondary price or kept it well-above $63 for a "quick secondary sell-out"
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I'm also very confused by the action of the last two days. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Read this link.....everything makes sense now.....
Jest is... Secondary was completed YESTERDAY @ $63
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/10/18/palo-alto-networks-sells-4-8m-shrs-for-holders-at-63-stk-off/?partner=yahootix
Saleem
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