Indices closed mixed despite good jobs report & upward revision to two previous jobs report to the tune off 40K+++
S&P 500 closed @ 1460.93
RSI @ 63.03
CMF @ -0.057
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.07 to 1 in NYSE & .71 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.31 to 1 in NYSE & .87 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 292 in NYSE & 117 in Nasdaq
VIX closed @ 14.33 Down 1.51%
Oil closed @ $89.88
Gold closed @ $1780.80
Canadian $ Closed UP 21 tick @ 102.19, Canadian Job growth was "superb" expectations 10K actual 52,100 a beat by over 5 times.....
Stocks which closed green included BIDU,DNKN,LVS,JCP,
LEN TCK KORS FCX CLF MA V LRCX MU BRCM X
STLD MFC MS SNE
Here is my portfolio weighting :
YHOO 22.89%
LVS 20.01%
BIDU 16.25%
JCP 16.02%
DNKN 13.13%
RIMM 11.70%
Exposure 90%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
This week was overall good despite the Friday pullback with nice gains every day otherwise. The big gainers for me this week included GGC(+10.8%), WPRT (+10.3%), GWAY (+8.1%), FIO (+5.8%), and MNST (+5.5%). The current portfolio is now:
PRU - 10.7%
GGC - 8.9%
FIO - 8.6%
WPRT - 8.4%
GHDX - 8.0%
LF - 7.8%
PANW - 7.7%
CRUS - 7.6%
MNST - 7.6%
APKT - 7.5%
GWAY - 7.5%
Z - 7.1%
APWC - 2.4%
(cash) - 0.2%
Consistent with my research from last weekend, I wanted to get into stocks that I thought would perform well into earnings and therefore added to LF and initiated Z and MNST early in the week, while selling new-tech plays like SPLK, PANW, ELOQ, PFPT, and laggard OCZ. Late additions to the portfolio were PRU and PANW due to technical and strategic reasoning, although PANW got hit the next day with secondary concerns (which are soon to be resolved).
The market action on Friday was the "scariest" I've seen in quite a while. During an afternoon span, we started selling off hard, fast, and heavy volume on many names, and I wasn't sure if/when it would stop. This is different from the 60-100+ down opens we've had recently where selling was light initially and I was confident in an eventual comeback. In looking at the carnage charts, the selling was quite heavy in many beta names, including some in my portfolio, but also diverse, known, large names like CTXS, AAPL, and CMG to name a few.
In my experience, these beta selloffs are not "one-day" events, so I am on high alert right now. The cause for the selloff is possibly attributed to the slow growth numbers we've seen in the recent quarter, leading many to question how good the earnings can be from the high growth sectors. Anything less than stellar growth from high growth names can be devastating to their stock prices.
With that in mind, it is ever more important to have conviction in your individual names, and very often technicals tell a comprehensive story that we individually can't compose exactly ourselves. For instance, I find it interesting that despite the "beta crash" in many names, FIO was relatively quiet and in a 31.90-32.00 range the entire last two hours of the Friday session. Action like this is divergently positive, and is worth noting and desiring. Stocks like AAPL and SPLK, however, started breaking down fast during this "beta selloff" and ended up slicing and closing below key moving averages. Stocks like these should be avoided until technical damage is repaired and some stabilization occurs.
The general market looked good this week overall with supportive comments from the ECB and slightly better economic data from the US. China was off all week for holiday, and I've often seen China ease after holiday weeks, so I'm looking for positive action there as well. This may be our pre-earnings selloff week, but there are many positive things happening in the world, so I think earnings will *again* be a catalyst for upward move in the good stocks, confounding most skeptics. The only "wildcard" is the pre-fiscal cliff slowdown, which is yet to materialize much at all, and is closer in date to a resolution one way or another (election win might cause the stock market to anticipate the "fix").
Have a great weekend and be careful next week--I'm flashing yellow right now! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your detailed analysis & flashing of caution.....
I am glad your portfolio performed well.
Saleem
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