This morning before open we got "better than expected jobs report"
171 K jobs created vs consensus of 125 K ..previous two months August & September were revised UP by 84 K...but all this good news became a problem for HFT.....so we went down hard closing near lows of the day.
S&P 500 closed @ 1414.20
RSI @ 53.99
CMF -0.094
Internals were :
Down volume led by 3.0 to 1 in NYSE & 3.60 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 2.34 to 1 in NYSE & 2.67 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 91 in NYSE & 16 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 5.39% @ 17.59
Oil closed @ $84.86
Gold closed @ $1675.20
Canadian $ closed UP 12 tick @ 100.44
In my portfolio :
Bought RVBD @ $18.97
Portfolio is APKT,AMZN,BIDU,LVS,PANW,RVBD
Here is my portfolio weighting :
PANW 22.56%
LVS 19.04%
RVBD 16.62%
AMZN 15.47%
BIDU 13.99%
APKT 12.32%
Exposure 98%
Stocks which closed green included AMZN,RVBD,
YHOO,SU,DNKN,PCLN,M,GOOG,ZNGA,MA,
RIMM,SBUX,MCD,CCJ,MFC,BAC,MS,BJRI,IBN
Next post by 2 PM Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Friday really exposed the internal damage my portfolio has taken in recent weeks as ELOQ dropping 16% back down to its level from pre-earnings dropped my overall portfolio to its lowest level in months. Given my portfolio composition didn't change this week (ELOQ GGC FIO APKT GHDX MLNX SNDK PANW GWAY CRUS SPLK LF PFPT APWC), I thought I'd give % change since last purchase:
ELOQ - 10/22 +2.6%
GGC - 10/24 -2.2%
FIO - 10/25 -6.8%
APKT - 10/22 +10.0%
GHDX - 8/16 -7.7%
MLNX - 10/23 +11.8%
SNDK - 10/24 -1.2%
PANW - 10/3 -14.3%
GWAY - 8/22 +6.4%
CRUS - 9/26 -16.4%
SPLK - 10/9 -12.3%
LF - 10/26 +3.5%
PFPT - 10/10 -2.5%
APWC - 10/13/2011 +1.3%
This doesn't tell the whole picture as I've swapped in and out of some since they came on my radar, but it definitely shows how a handful of poor performers can really drag a portfolio down. I have confidence in all these stocks, hence the lack of moves this week, but it is important to allow for the possibility I might be wrong. To this end, I need to get better at letting go of "good" stocks when the technicals break.
As for the overall market, clearly this week's dynamic will be dominated by the election. It is important we get a clear winner with no possibility of recounts, which would be horrible in hoping for a lame-duck Congress session to resolve the fiscal cliff issues. I am hoping a clear winner in the election will make both parties in Congress act mature and get a solution working quickly, especially if it turns out to be an Obama status quo maintaining win.
As my technology stocks have badly lagged, I can't help but wonder if the best way to play the global recovery is through some beaten up industrials or commodities. It is hard for me to definitively figure out the form that the Chinese "rebound" will take. Will commodities really start taking off again? or will the constant new supply work to keep price rises in check? Also, given we potentially expect a transition to a more consumer led Chinese economy in the future, will industrial production lag behind there?
In the past, I have mentioned potential stock buys like SI, BTU, ETN, and CMI. All have performed admirably well since mention although I didn't buy a single one. Are these types of industrials at 10x earnings with some dividends and potentially accelerating earnings going to perform better than beaten down techs still trading at 40x earnings with supposed growth of 40%? The recent price action has me wondering. GGC represents the only industrial in my portfolio, and it is almost exclusively US business--I may need to expand this reach.
Overall, many disappointments culminated in the Friday we saw where my portfolio dropped nearly 4% to a multi-month low. I continue to be optimistic on the future for the US and world economies, but I need to be better in accepting when it isn't the right time even for a "good" stock, and may need to reevaluate where the real stock opportunities lie.
Looking forward to election resolution! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thank for your man to man talk in analyzing your approach & portfolio performance.
We all have to look back to get few pointers for our strategy. Biggest test of nay strategy is its performance & timely booking of profit.
Only couple of time i did not book profit & have suffered.....
Market is extremely "unpredictable for all of us"...we all need to go for "singles" NOT "homeruns".........
Saleem
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