Indices managed to close green.
S&P 500 closed @ 1379.85
RSI @ 33.77
CMF -0.096
Internals were :
Down volume led by .89 to 1 in NYSE & 1.02 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.10 to 1 in NYSE & 1.01 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 57 in NYSE & 102 in Nasdaq
VIX closed UP .65% @ 18.61
Oil closed @ $86.07
Gold closed @ $1730.90
Canadian $ closed @ 99.87....below US$
Portfolio is APKT,AMZN,BIDU,LVS,PANW
Here is my portfolio weighting :
PANW 26.42%
LVS 22.10%
AMZN 18.54%
BIDU 17.00%
APKT 15.94%
Exposure 83%
Stocks which closed UP 1% or more included APKT,LVS,
AAPL,NFLX,FFIV,CRUS,GOOG,RIMM,CLF,LRCX,
QCOM,ARNA,STLD,CCJ.....
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It was an eventful, eye-opening week for me with the tone of the market changing dramatically even day to day. I ended up dead flat despite the volatility after a good Monday and Tuesday was mostly erased by Wednesday, and then Thursday and Friday I saw very little change thanks to portfolio moves. Here's what it looks like now:
TZA - 34.1%
CRUS - 14.4%
ELOQ - 8.5%
GWAY - 7.2%
CF - 7.2%
SPLK - 6.5%
APWC - 2.6%
(cash) - 19.5%
I find myself somewhat net short now thanks to the TZA leverage. I'm ok with this situation because I feel more downside is coming. I do want to maintain exposure in some of my stocks however, because often they trade independently of the market or have individual upcoming catalysts. Almost all the stocks I sold on Thursday/Friday I'm looking to buy back on either more dip or fiscal cliff resolution.
The reason I feel more market downside is coming is because this fiscal cliff negotiation should drag on, if only because it is the lawmakers' responsibilities to try and get the maximum for their constituents. So, despite the hope of something quick, I fear we see seemingly endless negotiations and rhetoric.
I expect the effect this will have on the market will be massive downside initially (this week) and then more muted action afterwards. This is because people remember the price action we saw during previous Congressional negotations and are reacting faster. This particular time it also has additional effects like creating downside pressure from capital gains tax selling and from slow corporate spending affecting earnings. Once everyone sells, we can then start building a new base, and probably sooner than people think we should, thereby climbing the "wall of worry". We all know in the end there will be resolution, and there will need to be a lot of catchup spending by corporations.
I am hopeful my strategy of being net short now will help enhance portfolio returns, but I am never comfortable as a short and realize there will be many "false" rallies to tear at me emotionally. At some point though, there will be that one huge real rally driven by at-the-moment headlines and that makes it extremely difficult to "game" and probably keeps me slighly less short than opportunistically I could be. Even in a lack of good headlines, if I see downside momentum starting to wane, I'll start getting back to neutral and then positive.
Europe seems to be slightly worse this week than last and China seems slightly better ahead of their leadership change, but I'm not sure either of these areas impact our market short term unless something severe happens.
Looking forward to an interesting week...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
You have a very good grip on challenges & opportunities.....its all about timing, which we do not control.
Saleem
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