Indices made higher highs & raced towards five year high.
S&P 500 closed @ 1513.17, high of the day was 1514.41
That takes care of Doug Kass much advertized CNBC prediction of seeing 2013 highs in January & 7% correction from there. We took out 2013 highs of January in first 45 minutes of Feb 1st. How he gets on CNBC with no track record?
RSI @ 71.68
CMF @ 0.430
Internals were :
UP volume led by 4.07 to 1 in NYSE & 1.82 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.43 to 1 in NYSE & 2.75 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 271 in NYSE & 237 in Nasdaq
VIX tumbled 9.66% @ 12.90
Oil closed @ $97.77
Gold closed @ $1670.60
Canadian $ Closed @ 100.27
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included BAC,TCK,CMG,
CSOD,GOOG,HMC,SCCO,EXPE,YUM,SU,LVS,FFIV,
GMCR,LRCX,MU,BRCM,JDSU,FNSR,CIEN,C,QCOM,
MOS,SBUX,STLD,EGO,SLW,SINA,MGA,MS,MLNX,
GS,IBN,FCX......
My portfolio weighting is :
BAC 40.91%
YHOO 27.94%
CRUS 22.11%
BBRY 9.04%
Exposure 78%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It was a volatile week with the portfolio ending slightly down due to drops in FIO (-19.3%) and GWAY (-4.7% before selling) offset somewhat by gains in CSOD (+5.7%) and AXLL (+6.6% before selling). Here's the portfolio as it stands now:
BAC - 8.2%
FIO - 6.5%
CSOD - 6.3%
PRU - 6.2%
PFPT - 6.2%
APWC - 3.0%
(cash) - 63.5%
This is the highest amount of cash I've had in a long time, and although it is always prudent to take profits, I am also always uncomfortable not having high exposure to good companies. It wasn't really my intention to reduce my exposure so much, but a variety of factors contributed to the selling.
My rationale for taking profits took shape through various analyses including waning upside momentum visible through technical indicators, general overbought conditions, overly bullish sentiment, and specific company concerns. Despite this, I don't expect a large pullback given the slowly improving worldwide economies and sentiment as we distance ourselves from major crises.
As I am almost hoping for a pullback at this point to re-enter some key positions, here are a list of potential reasons: lack of upside catalysts with earnings season coming to a close, whiffs of political uncertainty in Italy/Spain, retail spending sluggishness (housing too?) after the payroll tax holiday expired, and the upcoming sequester/budget debates. Although a strong market can certainly shrug these off, the still relatively overbought/overbullish conditions might create a 2-3% pullback, thereby allowing for a great re-entry point.
Besides these few negative ideas, the general movement of the market is higher--and you can "feel" it. Both companies and consumers are slowly shedding that careful posture that was necessary during the various crises we've seen in the last 5 years, and this is leading to more spending and investing. Specifically, I think corporate spending will be massive this year in light of recent tax and fiscal certainty, even if there is some trepidation surrounding the sequester debate. To go along with this general theme, I expect the "new tech" stocks will play a huge role in transitioning businesses to thrive in our new world.
In summary, I am hoping for a pullback to redeploy funds towards stocks. There are some I will buy back on any dip (AXLL, STLD, PANW, SPLK) and some I want to take a more "wait-and see" approach (GWAY, FFIV, CF, CRUS). Also, I am looking for new and old ideas to resurface for potential (APKT, CLF, WLT, ETP, others). It is the one reason I definitely like earnings season--to help me plan out the next three months with better ideas and confidence.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good analysis from your strategic point of view......
In a strong bull market, defensive or idealistic scenario generally don't pan out.
TAPE is the biggest verdict on every thesis.
Saleem
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