SO here we are when most market stat looks very impressive.....
Dow keep making new all time highs
Nasdaq keep making multi year highs
Russell 2000 keep making new all time highs
The only laggard so far is S&P 500 which has yet to make all time high
S&P 500 is sitting @ 1551.18....highest peak to conquer is 1576....which is 25 points away....
VIX @ 12.59 which is near 52 wk low of 12.08
RSI in S&P 500 based on 10 year read is @ 71.88 which many pundits are using to highlight overbought read......BUT IF you go back all the way to Jan 3rd 1950 historical read on RSI, it is sitting @ 59.74...in the past yesteryear we did go to 87 area on a historical basis......
My conclusion based on 63 year history of RSI..we are far from overbought condition....lots of room to run.
S&P 500 should be able to go to new all time highs this week.....
Triple witching will come & go without much impact.....
If you look @ historical chart from 1950 in any index.....it does not look overbought, on the contrary it is giving a clear signal that there is lot of room to run on the upside.......we have just broken out on most indices except Nasdaq which has its own unique history of bubble...there also we see lot of room to run if we look @ 63 year history......
It is good to see market picture from a longest term chart perspective......
All in all, we are all set to create many all time highs as we go along, YES there will be pullback of 3% to 6% along the way every so often, but TREND IS DEFINITELY UP......
Making money is always difficult as we are driven by our own convictions in set of stocks which may or may not keep pace with market. It is important to go with market leaders along with your own picks.
Good luck with your OWN strategy.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
4 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It is very important to sometimes take a step back from the day-to-day and look at the wider picture. I love your analysis of 63 years of market history and what that says about the next years to come. Let's hope we all get with the right stocks to ride this great wave! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
This TAPE feels different but many technicians are treating this as previous trading market.
Market do not make all time highs unless something has changed.
It is highly profitable to go with the flow.
Thanks for your feedback !!!!
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Sold some DSPG @ 7.455 because I am uncomfortable with the activist investor's noise and wanted to reduce exposure.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
It is important to have high comfort level with every stock in portfolio.
Saleem
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