TAPE got a big boost from above consensus US data.
S&P 500 closed @ absolute high of the day @ 1667.47
RSI @ 72.51
CMF @ 0.422
Internals were :
UP volume led by 4.36 to 1 in NYSE & 3.49 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 2.72 to 1 in NYSE & 3.09 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 407 in NYSE & 227 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 4.74% @ 12.45
Oil @ $96.02
Gold @ $1364.70
Canadian $ @ 97.31.....inflation came in well below consensus, not good for CAD down 1.06 cent
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included EBAY KOG
SU PANW RDN TIF COH KORS LULU PCLN LEN
HMC CLF AMZN LVS BIDU MA V JASO LRCX
MU BRCM CIEN C SNDK CSCO QCOM CSIQ
NVDA FSLR X STLD SINA SPWR ECA MGA
MS MLNX Z WYNN GS AGU FCX.....
Here is portfolio weighting :
AUY 33.63%
BBRY 31.30%
EBAY 26.49%
KOG 8.58%
Exposure 102%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell
Saleem
3 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It was a mentally challenging week for me as I cycled through many ideas/theses and also watched many of my good stocks move higher without me. On the week the portfolio managed to gain 2.79% versus the S&P's 2.07% despite being at less than full allocation. Big gainers included PRU (+5.1%), MSFT (+7.4%), MKTO (+8.7%), and DATA (+11.54%). The only loser still in the portfolio is CF (-0.8%) although I sold WPRT and DE for losses also. Here's the portfolio now:
Financials/Housing: PRU OCN BAC
Enterprise Software: MSFT SPLK MKTO DATA
Materials/Industrials: FCX CF SWC APWC
Consumer Discretionary: M
Cash: ~23%
Even as I write this up, I'm reliving the mental anguish of the week. The struggle to be "perfect" in a strong, steady bull market is haunting.
This week's major mover day was Tuesday when I sold my materials stocks as a strong dollar play, and enterprise software stocks in an expectation of a slow summer for small caps with no short interest (the normal seasonality). By Wednesday I was already buying some of those back, especially the materials as weak US data again showed the Fed will have to remain accomodative. The selling of the enterprise software stocks worked out mostly poorly and I'm reconsidering my stance on that now, especially in light of the big movers MKTO and DATA on Friday which signalled continued strong interest in the area.
The overall market continues to shrug off any bad data in expectations of recovery. The only real risk to the market right now is strengthening too fast which would pull the Fed back. I think we are still quite far off from this event though as job losses from the sequester still limit the full potential of the economy, although you can feel the momentum of good news start to grow. The real pause point of the market might come with a 300k+ jobs print.
My plan this week will continue to be opportunistic about companies with catalysts and undervaluation. Short interest stocks always seem to see a lot of volatility in the summer and I'm interested in how SPLK performs in coming weeks. I am considering re-entering my enterprise software space in buying stocks like RALY, MODN, PFPT, and CSOD, and I continue the search for more consumer discretionary plays. I can buy 4 small/medium or 3 large positions with my available cash at the moment. I am working on being more relaxed with my positions and outlook and just let things play out.
The warmer weather finally makes summer feel real! I hope all is well for you and your summer plans! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Very happy for you as you continue to beat S&P 500 by a wide margin.....my top two position is pulling my portfolio into negative return for the year...hoping that it may reverse soon.
Your market analysis is right on the money ...we need to show more conviction with our ideas...this bull is going to last a long long time.
My reseeding effort was only 40% productive..now will wait for fall to deal with 60%......
Had a get together last night which went very well......
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
We are slowly working through our lawn/landscape/garden work and are on expected pace.
We also spent Saturday night with friends which was relaxing and fun.
Stocktrader
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