Friday, June 28, 2013

Indices closed mixed......

Indices closed lower except for 1 point UP close in Nasdaq. Weakness was due to below expectations data in US......

S&P 500 @ 1606.28

RSI @ 46.88

CMF @ -0.002

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.23 to 1 in NYSE & 1.04 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.02 to 1 in NYSE & 1.07 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 60 in NYSE & 105 in Nasdaq

VIX unchanged @ 16.86...there is a huge margin increase of almost 6 times effective Monday, this may cause commotion in market on Monday.......

Oil @ $96.56

Gold @ $123.70

Canadian $ @ 94.80

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included KOG AUY
TEAR WLT TXTR MODN CRUS GG EGO SLW
AEM IBN .........

Here is my portfolio weighting :

AUY  35.76%

EBAY 28.11%

BBRY 26.06%

KOG  10.07

Exposure 102%

Next post by 2 PM Sunday

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

It was a nice outperformance week as the portfolio gained 3.71% versus the S&P's +0.87%. So far this year, the portfolio is up 26.7% versus the S&P's +12.6%. Most of that difference has come since the 5/17 weekly closing high for the S&P in which time the portfolio has gained 7.9% while the S&P has lost 3.7%.

Major gainers this week included CLDX (+11.0%), TXTR (+9.3%), MDSO (+6.9%), MODN (+6.5%), and SPLK/WLH (+5.7% each). Many other stocks were up 1-3%. The only losers were INVN (-4.2% before selling), RALY (-2.7%), and RDN (-1.4%). Here's the current portfolio:

Software: TXTR MODN PFPT SPLK RALY MDSO
Consumer Discretionary: SODA BBBY M KORS
Materials: TCK WLK WLT
Housing: RDN WLH
Other: CLDX (biotech) TEAR (medical device)

The portfolio shifts this week were to add materials exposure as China concerns and quarter-end selling/avoidance pushed them down to deep 52-wk lows. In order to pick up TCK and WLT, I sold off some special situations (GMCR, INVN) that I wasn't comfortable with and pared back the financial/ housing exposure based on valuation (TOL) and regulation (BAC). I also added BBBY this week in an interior housing play, and am looking at more. Finally, I took an opportunity to fill out my TEAR position as it came down significantly from its highs.

This week brings the ever important June employment report. Modest expectations of 165-170k jobs added seems reasonable, although we know the number is volatile at times. The timing of the July 4th holiday makes next week very interesting because the weekly jobless claims will fall to Friday also, and this is all combined with a major lack of liquidity as many participants will use the Thursday holiday to take a longer vacation. We may not know the true "read" of the number until next Monday.

The amount of global data this week will be large with PMIs reported around the world and interst rate decisions in Europe, Australia, and England. It certainly would not be surprising to see weak numbers from China and Europe given the turmoil in June, but more interesting will be the reaction to the numbers. Will the market look past weak numbers given we might be on the mental mend?

I deviated from my plan of last Sunday to sell into strength this week. It seemed to me as the week wore on that the market mood had changed, and we didn't just have oversold rallies but more like actual accumulation in the slow, steady rises throughout many of the days. I took this as a signal that the worst was behind us, and held on to all of the portfolio, although I am still constantly evaluating for sell opportunities.

My plan this week is influenced by my personal vacation plans of Wednesday-Friday. Unless something drastic happens Monday or Tuesday, I don't expect to do anything, although some of my software stocks are still gnawing at me a little given the usual poor seasonality for tech stocks in July and lack of liquidity we may see in some small cap stocks. Overall though, my main group of stocks has done very well through this turbulent time, so I don't see a huge need to sell them off suddenly now.

I hope everyone stays safe and has fun during this US holiday week! :)

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Congratulations on beating the S&P 500 by a factor of more than two.

Your success has been the outcome of detailed homework & timing.

I am having a bad year so far down 12.96% YTD......negative by a factor of 2 vs S&P 500.....

I am in a neutral mode for market...not expecting much for many months...range trading @ best.

Enjoy your well deserved July 4th holidays.......

Saleem