Here we are......we just finished watching first correction in six months of amazing uptrend......
How amazing was this uptrend.....in 2nd week of November we hit 1343.35..but by 2nd week of May we were @ 1687.18...a gain of 343.83 points or 25.59% ......
The above speedy gain is highly unusual...a rare event......
Somehow this TAPE has given too much comfort level to too many traders......
It is not rational to expect this environment to continue.......
"change" occurred 11 trading days ago.......
We saw a sharp pullback of 88.95 points or a loss of 5.27%....highest pullback in last six months.
It is important to "know" why this sudden change in TAPE direction in a straight line......
Fed is backing off from its $85 billion purchase.......month after month.....
This change should hit us in September......market will not like it when it actually happens.......
Fed has created a "defined uncertainty" which market hates........
I will not be surprised IF we test recent lows again & again until Fed acts.......
IF my scenario holds....... then until 2nd week of October TAPE will remain under pressure......
I am expecting a rangebound trading which may tilt lower each time.....until 2nd week of October.....
It may be productive to take it easy until 2nd week of October........
Worldwide economies are taking a pause for summer also.....
China may be lucky to stay above 7% GDP growth.....
India may be lucky to stay above 4.8% GDP growth......
These two economies were responsible for worldwide uptick...now no more.......
I am hoping by 2nd week of October TAPE may find its footing & worldwide economy may be on "growth mode"
Continue to do your OWN due diligence, as CNBC pundits will continue to change their tune on a day to day basis.........
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I posted both my weekly recap/outlook on your previous thread and a comment/question on this thread about an hour or so ago. Both have since disappeared. Did you happen to see them or know what happened?
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
NO..i have no idea.....
The only reason i can think of..is you need to sign IN......then you can post....i am sure you know this....
Only other way the post is gone when an author deletes their own post OR IF its duplicate then i can delete...in both case of deletion...there is a message saying who deleted the post.....me being administrator or you being author......
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Yes, I am aware of the signin requirement as it won't allow the post without it.
It is very strange--I posted the big recap/outlook and then came on this one and commented/asked a question and then refreshed a couple times in a few minutes to see if you were around and immediately commenting. When nothing new appeared right away, I left the page up and refreshed about an hour later to see if you had then replied. It strangely showed no comments, not even mine, and then I went to look at my other one and it was gone also. It's like there was some kind of rollback or something...
At least I got to compose the whole thing which is where the value for me comes in.
I'll reconstruct the comment/question for this thread since it was short but I don't think I have the time or heart to recompose the big recap/outlook. Besides the recognition of my mistakes this week, I thought the jobs number was perfect to allow for resumption of the uptrend.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Great points and given your stellar track record in calling this market pullback and the Friday jobs number, all should listen!
Do you think the "perfect" jobs number allows some breathing room for the market? or will portfolio managers start selling again soon in fear of the "taper"?
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your feedback.
I am missing your detailed narrative. I am sure many BLOG visitors are used to your rationale & analysis.
As far as jobs numbers are concerned...they are in line with "expected trend for Fed"
I think new range is going to be there..we may be close to high end of the range.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Strong bull markets leave you with many regrets. I'm staring at SODA and PRU a lot today!
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold MKTO @ 21.454. As you know, I made a big mistake on this one and have been looking for an exit point. I got that today finally, and although it may move higher still on this move, I think the potential returns surrounding marketing clouds is nearly over now that both ORCL (ELOQ) and CRM (ET) have bought their way in.
I looked at TXTR strongly over the weekend. Although it is very expensive for a SaaS company yet to report publicly (using P/S metrics), the competition in their particular niche is almost zero (small private companies compete on some pieces but no comprehensive solution like theirs). Also, the underpenetration of software solutions in the construction industry leaves them so much more room to grow. I'll probably have to start a position and see what happens. The story is one of the best out there but valuation is rich.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I know the feeling of something early...BUT you also have to see where you sold before it went down...in the end everything balances out.
MKTG has been moving like crazy.....
Saleem
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