Indices completed three day pullback.
S&P 500 @ 1690.91, low 1684.91
RSI @ 57.51
CMF @ 0.242
Internals were :
Down volume led by 2.35 to 1 in NYSE & 1.77 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 2.32 to 1 in NYSE & 1.97 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 111 in NYSE & highs were leading by 64 in Nasdaq
VIX UP by 2.04% @ 12.98
Oil @ $104.37
Gold @ $1285.30
AH ER :
Negative reaction GMCR Down 6.19% FIO Down 18.66%
Positive reaction PRU Up 1.55% TSLA UP 14.13% GRPN 20.99%
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold UP
About market, Indices corrected 1.45% in three days. TAPE has digested TAPER talk with minor pullback. TAPE is predicting US economy can stand on its own without "full support of Fed". Looks like we are all set for "new highs".
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
PS...Thursday Muslims are celebrating Eid which is equivalent to Christmas. There will be no BLOG on Thursday as i will be visiting friends & family in Toronto area. Friday's BLOG will be after close.
Saleem
7 comments:
Hey Saleem,
So I listened to TXTR's call live and then listened to the replay just now so as to really get a good feel for things (and it can get quite noisy in my house late afternoon).
The numbers look great with a beat-and-raise quarter and stellar growth rates of 60%+ through 2014. The company is really in the early stages still with revenues this quarter of 9.36M and guided 2013/2014 revenues of 35.4M/56.5M (60% projected growth next year).
Given their current product suite and geographic presense, their total addressable market is ~$3.6B. As they add more products and expand geographically, they feel the worldwide addressable market is >=$20B--a staggering number. There is no competitor that offers the full suite of products they do, and given their recent IPO, the fresh funds will allow them to lengthen their already market-leading position and also strategically purchase additions for their current portfolio suite.
Interestingly, they don't have a direct sales team, and they leave it to the service teams to initiates any sales calls. This works because the construction industry needs support-like information right from the start in order to consider allowing a 3rd party to handle their invoicing area, a contractor's life blood. This sales approach is working as the collaborative features of the software (basically anyone invoiced can become a sales lead also) and the high referral rate is keeping everyone busy. It has the additional benefits of no commissions paid and therefore will keep the sales and marketing expense much lower than other software companies. I think going public has also helped spread word of mouth and increase overall referability.
Some things I'll watch in the future are how conservative their guidance really is (although a nice beat for their first quarter helps answer that) and how cyclical the CPM business can get (since it is based on active projects). In these early stages, with hyper growth rates, no notable competition, and a huge addressable market, I don't expect any problems. I hope to trim the position down to more normal size after further stock appreciation in order to diversify.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
WLH just blew out the numbers: revenue 120.6M versus 101.90M estimates and $0.29 earnings versus -$0.04 estimate. Preliminarily those numbers look "clean" and I'll be interested to hear the conference call at 12pm ET.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
With the carnage surrounding the retail space right now, KORS really stands out as the bright spot, and it's *really* bright. I think it's a "must-own" right now.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
I had a tiny bit of buying power and added a couple hundred shares of WLH @ 22.806 on great conference call comments so far.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Trimmed TXTR @ 32.000 to take profits. It's back down to a "normal" position size.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
I had to log in from the hotel room to sell RDN @ 13.98. In their quarterly filing they state that they expect changes in capital requirements by the GSEs by end year in order to remain an eligible insurer. Although there will be a phase-in period, it makes me wonder how much more capital RDN will need and if we'll see another secondary. I wanted to sell first and see what happens, especially after the good run and questionable housing trends currently.
In other news, it looks like MODN is behaving fairly well considering they unexpectedly lost their head of sales. The conference call was hard to hear and understand and I'm not even sure I got the right guidance. I'll have to listen to it again when I get back home.
Hope all went well with your holidays! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for keeping me updated with your messages about your Sale & add-on.
Appreciated your take on TXTR cc.
Last 2 days were hectic & have not watched any videos yet.....Eid is a social festival which everyone enjoys....bkfst, lunch & dinner is served wherever you go plus lot of snacks & sweets......
Enjoy wedding festivities.
Saleem
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