Indices were under pressure from Fed officials in terms of Tapering timetable.
S&P 500 @ 1697.37, low 1693.29
RSI @ 6154
CMF @ 0.233
Internals were :
Down volume led by 3.46 to 1 in NYSE & 2.98 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 2.97 to 1 in NYSE & 2.34 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 67 in NYSE & gains leading by 117 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 7.43% @ 12.72
Oil @ $105.30
Gold @ $1282.50
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil UP
AH Gold Down
About market, IBD has changed its market outlook to "market under pressure". I personally believe that these pullbacks are healthy & we have lost so far .96%. I am of the view that we are on the verge of turning UP as pessimism has taken hold & internals are negative. I will not be surprised IF we close near best level of the day on Wednesday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
15 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I'm very glad I took the time to listen to CSOD's conference call because it is possibly the best one I've heard all season so far.
Their current growth rate is almost unbelievable given the scale they've already achieved, but they still have more untapped areas like new products (Recruiting, Connect), new geographies (Asia, Latin America), and new market presence (very highest and lowest ends).
Some of their biggest commentary was about competition. They feel, and this is playing out, that as their competition like Taleo (ORCL) and SuccessFactors (SAP) gets bought out, eventually the talent leaves and the drive and vision dies. That leaves CSOD with the best-of-breed products which the potential clients respond to aggressively.
As their sales force grows and matures, they believe they will achieve higher ASPs through more multiple product sales and lower costs due to less implementation outsourcing. The US government business is soft this year due to the sequester, but can only provide upside since they are modeling so low. Historically and currently, their future guidance is always conservative and leaves room for outperformance.
I think at 2.5B this company is well undervalued given the total addressable market (300-500M seats, CSOD currently @ 13M) and leading market presence. I will try to buy at a decent price tomorrow, likely selling CMI to raise the funds.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
CSTE reported before the bell and put up a nice quarter but is capacity constrained through the end of the year. I don't have time to listen to the conference call this morning but maybe the stock will rest for a while and give me a chance to reassess later.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for youe detailed analysis of CSOD..i forgot to list AH ER......
Good luck with your entry.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
It only traded 200 shares in AH, 100 @ 50.00 and 100 @ 46.30, so there wasn't much missed :).
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold CMI @ 121.56. I have no idea what to do about CSOD now as it has completely taken off...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
CSOD has come down $1.50 from high NOW....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Bought CSOD @ 49.497. It was higher than I hoped last night, but really this should be a core holding for any software portfolio.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with CSOD.....
I bought CSIQ option $16 expiring 16th August for 45 cents.....CSIQ reports before open tomorrow.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Good luck with the CSIQ option. That's quite a move you're looking for!
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
CSIQ closed yesterday @ $15.47....i was expecting selloff due to FSLR....i thought maybe to $14.75 area....thus my calculation of buying $16 call......
NOW..the price is far far from what my strategy was......
Let us see how CSIQ does ....i am expecting a blowout number all around......who knows i MAY be 100% correct on my 5th try.......
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Sold M @ 47.95 to raise some cash. Despite their strong competitive position, apparel sales seem sluggish industrywide. I doubt there's much downside in the name, but I think upside might be limited also.
I'm looking to add financial or tech exposure.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good move in locking M profit.
Good luck with your pick.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I decided to go with CLDX @ 20.072, but I'm struggling with the "which stock can rise most?" problem. I think I'm spoiled by stocks I can make a case for doubling like YELP or CSOD.
I looked at RALY, but am somewhat hoping for a "sell-on-the-news" post earnings since they pre-announced already. The chart is very strong though.
I also looked at C, BAC, MS, and PRU all for different reasons, but just can't quantify the upside well enough, and worry that rising rates is having a short-term negative impact.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
You have identified many strong stocks..instead of doubling up...i suggest a new stock which IS in your list.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
No, I meant I could make a case for eventual 100%+ gains in YELP or CSOD, but those kind of theses are hard to come by.
Yes, I definitely have enough exposure in my current stocks and am looking to mostly diversify into other strong stocks.
Stocktrader
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