Indices closed UP today as GDP came in better than expected.
S&P 500 @ 1638.17, high 1646.41, low 1630.88.
RSI @ 39.11
CMF @ -0.085
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.73 to 1 in NYSE & 3.21 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.83 to 1 in NYSE & 2.60 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 4 in NYSE & highs were leading by 42 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 1.94% @ 16.81
Oil @ $108.80
Gold @ $1412.90
Stocks which were UP 2% or more included KOG MU
QIHU GRPN LEN GMCR LULU CRUS MGA
TRLA Z YELP MLNX......
AH ER :
PSUN Down 11.22%, KKD Down 13.22%
CRM UP7.81%, SPLK UP 7.83%
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, TAPE is trying to deal with many issues which remains unresolved, mainly Syria & Debt issue. Low volume has another week to go. Considering everything TAPE has been in a holding pattern. Pundits are becoming more bearish & have a "dont buy" recommendation. In my opinion, the best time to buy is when nobody is buying.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
13 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I got a chance to listen to the SPLK conference call last night. I don't come away with the same excitement as other calls as I think they might be in a kind of "message lull" while they ramp their new products. That said, they are still the leader in complex data analysis showing great numbers and guidance, and I think a lot of large companies don't even understand how they might be able to use SPLK still--a positive for future opportunity. A big bright spot for them continues to be security, and I suspect they really have a better product than many of the security players in the space due to how SPLK's platform works.
At this point, the short thesis is pretty broken (I don't see how IBM and others can catch them now), and portfolio managers need solid exposure to big data, so we might be in the price ramp phase for the shares. They have their big conference in September and I'm sure that will generate buzz as well. It would not surprise me to see the stock north of $60 in the short term, and would be a mistake to correlate my slightly less enthusiastic tone for any kind of business weakness.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your detailed take on SPLK cc.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Added to CSOD @ 51.37 and KORS @ 73.69 to round out my "big 3" best conference calls (FB CSOD KORS).
I'll probably try and pick up SPLK late in the day or Tuesday. It often has a weird opening dip the second day after reporting earnings.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good move in buying "breakout stocks"
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Here's the thing about SPLK: they basically create products that haven't existed prior (at least not for enterprise sale). So each time they develop something, they don't know how the market will receive it nor what use cases companies will really see for it. This makes the process interesting, but very fruitful, as they learn how to sell and the collective power of the world's companies develop more and more uses for it.
One important thing SPLK said on the call that I didn't really have good distinction on before: they are most differentiated when it comes to very complex data sets and problems. If you are just trying to real-time interpret or view a single or simple data stream, there are likely companies out there that can do it better than SPLK. SPLK is better when you take multiple real-time data streams and want to interpret or correlate that. Some of the first use cases were diagnosing IT problems, and you can see how SPLK would work well in security defense. Part of this differentiation though is that it takes years for companies to figure out what they can really do with SPLK's software as they've never been able to solve these problems or interpret this data in these ways before. That presents SPLK both challenge, but also opportunity, as people are likely underestimating the total addressable market for SPLK. SPLK is currently addressing verticals like financials, online sites, telecommuncations, etc. where you see thousands or millions of transactions or bits of data per second. They think healthcare might be another vertical they can address in the future.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Bought SPLK @ 53.19. I don't know if I convinced myself with that extra writeup, but I thought ~$53 was a fair price.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good move in entering SPLK on slight dip.....
Based on your rewrite you convinced yourself that it is a good stock.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Bought a little more CSOD @ 51.04. Just thinking about my position sizes and risk/reward, I thought CSOD could be even bigger. I don't see any downside except in a horrible market.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader
CSOD is a good one to add.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Bought MU @ 13.47. The syngeries with the Elpida acquisition seem amazing and are probably still underestimated. An analyst raised his PT to $21 today.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Welcome to MU club......
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Took my wife's 401(k) out of those bonds and into cash (should have switched to stocks again but didn't think about that until too late). Given the imminent threat of military action and fears of September all around, the bond market is not rallying like it should.
PSUN really hurt today--that was a speculation gone wrong for sure. Straying from my usual group of stocks seems to not work quite often for me. My calls on SPLK and CSOD were much better today.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
We all like to test our "speculative power" every so often...but for me it has been a disaster in last 12 months.
Your timing was "perfect" on SPLK.
Bond is funny even today..10 yr yield UP & 30 yr yield DOWN...try to figure that out???
Saleem
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