Indices digested recent gains & closed down ever so slightly.
S&P 500 @ 1841.40, high 1844.89
RSI @ 69.30
CMF @ 0.054
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.58 to 1 in NYSE & .74 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.10 to 1 in NYSE & .91 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 181 in NYSE & 171 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 1.05% @ 12.46
Oil @ $100.32
Gold @ $1214.00
Canadian $ @ 93.03
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included JKS RALY SINA
BBRY BIDU KOG CRUS JDSU PANW X STLD
WUBA WLT......
Here is my weighting :
JKS 34.90%
SINA 34.59%
AUY 15.64%
RALY 14.87%
Exposure 130%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A relatively wild week for the portfolio ended in a negligible gain of +0.07% versus the S&P's +1.27%.
Notable Winners: DRYS (+26.8%), FCX (+5.1%), TRLA (+4.3% upon sale), SB (+3.8%)
Notable Losers: TXTR (-19.2% upon sale), AAL (-5.3%), FB (-3.0% from purchase)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +65.99%
S&P 500: +29.11%
Upon coming into the week with some good cash, I deployed it on Tuesday adding BALT, LRCX, and more TXTR. By Thursday I was taking profits after a large run selling stocks I thought lacked new catalysts like CSOD, TRLA, and WDC. I also had to emergency sell my position in TXTR due to allegations of misleading investors and/or fraud. With the spare cash on Friday, I bought some FB on a dip caused by TWTR, but it turned into more of a crash by day's end.
Here's the current portfolio:
Highest Weightings (12.0-11.4%): AAPL AAL FCX
Middle Weightings (9.6-8.0%): FDX FB KOG
Lowest Weightings (7.3-4.3%): LRCX DRYS CLDX SB BALT
Cash: 8.7%
Closed Positions: CSOD TXTR TRLA WDC
New Positions: BALT LRCX FDX FB
I'll start out by saying I'm mentally spent. Even with the good performance of the portfolio this year, it has been a constant challenge to find the next new ideas and prune the laggards at decent prices. With the market trading at all-time highs (of course not the $COMPX yet), I feel like the market and I need a break!
The economies of the world currently look like they have positive momentum. The potential risks for China include a credit crunch and/or a slowing resource sector as the economy "grows up". The potential risks for the US include a slowing housing sector if rates move up too fast and/or a retrenchment in consumer spending after a very surprise large move in recent years. The potential risks for Japan include a failure of Abe's 3rd growth leg and/or a currency crisis. I'm really not sure where the potential risks are for Europe, but some sort of budget disagreements and/or a slowing export market could be on the list.
The thing that worries me the most about the market right now is sentiment. All the cuckoo birds are chirping about how high the market can go. Bullish sentiment readings are off the chart high with Investor's Intelligence having the highest bull/bear ratio in the 20 year history I could look back specifically, and probably most reminiscent of early 1987. While this is not necessarily an imminent sign of disaster as too many people play contrarian, it does make the market vulnerable to shocks, and may eventually bring about a severe correction.
I detailed some of my new market ideas for 2014 last week. I'll put together a comprehensive list of all my 2014 ideas, old ones still working and potential new, by next weekend.
A bit tired for now...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Getting 66% return is not an easy task.....it comes with some burnout which you are dealing with now.
My suggestion is not overdo switching until you get your groove back.
Lying low is not a bad recipe.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Given I can't exceed 100% invested in the account, I am extremely pleased with this year's performance. I do plan to lay a bit low until I get back in the groove, although my nature is to participate so the hiatus might be short-lived. All it takes are some new ideas that I find exciting!
Stocktrader
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