As expected TAPE was strong today, DOW & S&P 500 closed @ all time high.
S&P 500 @1818.31, high 1823.75
RSI @ 62.83
CMF @ 0.024
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.39 to 1 in NYSE & 4.83 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.11 to 1 in NYSE & 2.60 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 242 in NYSE & 222 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 2.54% @ 13.79
Oil @ $99.32
Gold @ $1203.70
Canadian $ @ 93.20
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included RALY
BBRY TRIP BIDU MU EXPE TSLA AMZN
LUV GOOG TWTR DNKN CMG EBAY
FFIV COH MA YNDX ARUN RVBD
CRUS GMCR SNDK AMCC TCK
CIEN JDSU SPLK MCD EGO
JCP WUBA CSOD....
Here is my weighting :
JKS 35.23%
SINA 34.33%
AUY 15.58%
RALY 14.86%
Exposure 130%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A great week for the market helped drive the portfolio to gains of 2.48% versus the S&P's similar +2.42%.
Notable Winners: SB (+11.8%), KOG (+8.8%), TXTR (+5.1%)
Notable Losers: WUBA (-3.5% upon sale)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +65.86%
S&P 500: +27.88%
On Monday and Tuesday this week I made a specific moves in buying FB for the S&P addition and FCX for a non-taper. I also sold WUBA due to underperformance and GRPN due to low portfolio size thereby simplifying. On Wednesday I added to KOG after their pre-release of numbers, and went out of and back in to CLDX after being cautious about some early day weakness. After the surprise Fed taper announcement, I sold SB at close expecting some weakness in the $BDI into year end and desire to take at least something off after the huge market run.
On Thursday I sold what I thought were vulnerable stocks to a market fade including TXTR, MS, RALY, and TRLA. After Friday's Q3 GDP data, I realized the "clean" (not politically affected) strength of the underlying economy was higher than I thought, and therefore I reallocated into some speculative names including WDC, CSOD, TXTR, and TRLA. I also added SB and DRYS given the very impressive strength of the $BDI during a normally weak time. I finished Friday by executing on my plans to sell FB and MHK, both of which were added to the S&P 500 at close, and added AAPL in what I expect to be a great holiday season for iSales and also positive sentiment surrounding margins.
Here's how the portfolio is structured now:
Highest Weightings (12.4-10.9%): AAL AAPL FCX
Middle Weighting (8.0%): KOG
Lowest Weightings (6.2-5.0%): CLDX TXTR CSOD WDC SB TRLA DRYS
Cash: ~18%
Closed Positions: WUBA GRPN MS RALY MHK
New Positions: FCX DRYS WDC CSOD AAPL
Net Reduction: TXTR
Net Addition: KOG
Despite not correctly predicting the Fed announcement, I was positioned well for the increase as I expected buying regardless. Unfortunately, I tried to "play the game" too much and ended up costing myself over 1% total performance by selling some names Thursday and either not rebuying or buying back higher on Friday.
Even though we are very short-term overbought, the S&P's RSI is only 62.83, which gives us some room into year end. For now the extreme sentiment readings can be ignored, especially because it doesn't count all the people not participating in the market at all in the US (who are implicitly negative). It is the general acceptance of a better economy that will bring sustained money flows in 2014.
One of my breakout sectors for 2014 is dry bulk shippers. Day rates are at their highest in years, and improved economies along with lower ore/coal/grain pricing support worldwide shipments. The earnings leverage to higher day rates is massive as these companies are debt-laden and many shippers are exposed to spot prices now as long term contracts roll off. The sector has been institutionally underweight for years since the supply/demand of ships was not in balance, but things have finally improved on that front. This could be one of the best catchup trades in recent memory (and has already started). I like SB as a "safe" favorite, but others are even more exposed to improving day rates like BALT and others. I am still researching the sector and should have more ideas soon.
I expect slow, but mostly positive, trading into year end. All of the major "events" are beyond us, and many participants have started their holiday vacations. I may need to do further adjusting for 2014 ideas, but trying to time the market is not in my plans.
I hope all enjoy time with friends and family as the holidays are upon us! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Your well laid out plans are working like a charm.
Your high focus on your ongoing homework has given you the results which you worked for.
You have given lot of profitable ideas to our BLOG visitors & i am sure many have put those ideas to work.
Saleem
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