IF you can believe this, we closed down for the day,week, month & year today, not a pretty picture.
S&P 500 @ 1782.59, high 1793.88, low 1772.26
RSI @ 39.82
CMF @ 0.062
Internals were :
Down volume led by 2.62 to 1 in NYSE & 1.72 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.69 to 1 in NYSE & 2.26 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 24 in NYSE & highs were leading by 28 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 6.48% @ 18.41
Oil @ $97.49
Gold @ $1239.80
Canadian $ @ 88.81
Stocks which closed green included KOG
OTEX TWTR AMCC FB LNKD NFLX AAPL
GOOG YHOO LEN CMG SU YUM GMCR ZNGA
BRCM JDSU FNSR MCD GG AEM JCP WUBA SPWR
CSOD Z WYNN YELP.....
Here is my portfolio weighting :
JKS 37.99%
MU 22.20%
AUY 21.77%
KOG 18.04%
Exposure 138%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Despite many failures during earnings season, the portfolio was only down 1.11% (yes, a victory) versus the S&P's -0.43%.
Notable Winners: AAL (+10.4%), QUNR (+6.1%), RALY (+1.9%), CSOD (+1.2%)
Notable Losers: CRUS (-11.6% upon sale), AAPL (-7.1% upon sale), CLDX (-5.0%), SWKS (-2.6% upon sale), NUAN (-2.3% upon sale), MS (-2.1% from purchase), MJN (-2.0% from purchase)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: -4.69%
S&P 500: -3.56%
This week I sold everything chip related and rotated into other sectors or stocks that I felt were undervalued. Here's the portfolio composition now:
Highest Weightings (12.3-10.3%): AAL MJN MS FDX
Middle Weightings (8.0%): CSOD
Lowest Weightings (6.9-5.3%): RALY YELP POT SPLK AGU QUNR CLDX JKS
Cash: ~0%
Closed Positions: AAPL NUAN CRUS SWKS
New Positions: MS MJN AGU POT
So here we stand after a digestion week following the large down week. There is good support in the 1770-1780 range which we tested every day this week, and we have seen good earnings reports be rewarded with positive price action. This tells me that it will take new negative news to precipitate another leg down in the market. The question is whether we see that.
One of the downside risks is a potentially slowing global economy which may then threaten the US growth outlook. There are only few signs of this currently, with China being the most prominent fear, but certainly the interconnectedness of the world could spread this slowness. Europe is a major exporter to the world and the nascent recovery there could stall if further weaknesses emerge.
Independently, severe weather conditions in much of the US throughout January and expected to continue into February could dampen business and consumer activity. Data in coming weeks should help us decipher the extent of this impact, and pressure from global conditions pose further downside risks.
The Federal Reserve is continuing on the path of tapering the stimulus they provide monthly. I had hoped for a lesser taper announcement this past week, but the Fed remained on course. While this signals consistency and credibility for some market watchers, I think they could have taken a softer stance in either action or language. It seemed to me the economic conditions both domestically and globally showed a few signs of weakness that could have been addressed more.
To this end, there are several emerging market currencies under pressure. The tapering of stimulus by the Fed coupled with some signs of global weakness is turning some capital flows quickly against certain countries. While the ultimate extent of contagion is nearly impossible to predict, many investors remember currency crises in the past and are selling first. The main problem areas like Turkey are being closely watched at the moment for the next direction.
All these problem areas being known however, it is important to recognize some of the great earnings reports we've seen this week, headlined by fantastic reports from FB, NOW, and PFPT. These helped spread positive sentiment throughout the social and cloud spaces, and my CSOD closed Friday at an all-time high. I look forward to seeing the upcoming reports for many of these stocks.
The only earnings report this week for the portfolio is YELP (Wed PM). Other ones I'm watching include KORS (Tue AM), RL (Wed AM), TWTR (Wed PM), PRU (Wed PM), EXPE (Thu PM), and LNKD (Thu PM).
My plan for this week is to reduce exposure where opportunistic with MJN my top sell candidate as mentioned Friday. I am considering putting on some kind of hedge because I am fearful about the economic momentum right now. The jobs report Friday is very important, but weather skews could exist throughout making it tougher to "read".
Watching for more clues...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for recap of your portfolio & read of market.
YES..being down slightly more than S&P 500 is a victory for you & as you have mostly high beta stocks.
Saleem
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