Indices closed mixed fighting selling pressure.
S&P 500 @ 1831.37, low 1829.13, high 1838.24
RSI @ 60.53
CMF @ 0.053
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.20 to 1 in NYSE & 1.08 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.82 to 1 in NYSE & 1.64 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 72 in NYSE & 94 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 3.30% @ 13.76
Oil @ $93.96
Gold @ $1238.60
Canadian $ @ 93.86
Stocks which closed green included JKS RALY
LULU TWTR TRIP MGA M LUV MS C
GRPN ARUN GMCR JDSU FNSR
TSL CSIQ SPWR YHOO CMG
YUM COH PANW CSOD
GS ......
In my portfolio..Bought KOG @ $10.60
Here is my weighting :
JKS 38.11%
SINA 29.47%
AUY 13.52%
RALY 12.89%
KOG 6.01%
Exposure 135%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
5 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Argh. I was ~75% done with my post and got a "Not Found
Error 404" when I tried to preview. I'll probably quickly try and retype it since I have most of the thought process complete.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
That error is rare..generally messages are saved in draft...check IF its there.....then edit...then post...
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
A shortened week ended with the portfolio down -0.40% versus the S&P's -0.54%.
Notable Winners: AAL (+6.4%), CLDX (+4.3%)
Notable Losers: DRYS (-6.0% upon sale), BTU (-4.4% from purchase), X (-2.5% from purchase), FDX (-2.4%)
Final 2013 Info:
Portfolio: +66.28%
S&P 500: +29.60%
2014 YTD Info:
Portfolio: -0.58%
S&P 500: -0.92%
This past week I mostly just exchanged stocks I thought were tired or lacking catalysts for those I thought would perform well in 2014 or had fresh catalysts. Here's how the new portfolio looks:
Largest Positions (12.5-11.4%): AAL FCX
Middle Positions (9.4-8.7%): FDX CLDX HPQ
Smallest Positions (7.6-5.2%): BTU LRCX BALT X WDC SB SODA
Closed Positions: DRYS KOG AAPL FB
New Positions: WDC SODA HPQ BTU X
Add-ons: BALT CLDX
The most important aspects of this market right now are the warnings signs. The S&P has closed down 4 of the last 5 days despite year-end and year-beginning effects which should be supportive. The recent days' candlestick pattern indicates either a bearish evening star or bearish kicking formation (using SPY instead of $SPX due to the latter's problem with the morning print), both of which are nasty reversal patterns. Another technical formation I'm watching is the multiple negative divergences in the MACD from the late October to late November to late December highs. Finally, the Investor's Intelligence reading hit 61.6 bulls this week, the cycle highest since the '09 bull market started--this signals that everyone is onboard already.
For months now, we have ignored one problem after another and have been rewarded as the market kept moving higher. I believe now is the time to really sit up and pay attention. I think we have started a down move in the market, which at best will grind lower slowly, but has the potential for a faster decline. Currently I expect the "best case" as there's really no negative catalysts and so it should give time to exit positions deliberately and at decent prices. We need to pay attention though for negative developments in the overall market which could unwind recent market gains in a big hurry.
I realize earnings seasons is upon us. Although I have attempted to put stocks into the portfolio that have upside based on earnings, I am fearful of a "sell the news" reaction on any stock that has done well recently. Many winners are very overowned right now, and I think paring back of positions by portfolio managers is in the cards. My inclination is to sell almost everything and wait for positive price action over multiple days before entering a new position--I am that concerned about the overall market.
In summary, there's not much that is occupying my mental time besides the warning signals. Usually Q4 earnings signify a great time for companies to set the bar for 2014 and give a business outlook for a whole year. I'll still be following these developments, but will use a "sell first" approach in almost all situations. Starting Monday I'll be reducing exposure.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Nothing worked to recover the old draft. I was able to retype rather quickly though based on having all calculations complete and having 75% of the thoughts complete. It was thankfully not a huge setback.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Great performance for 2013, all your hardwork paid off.
Your strategy & timing was admirable, i am sure many BLOG visitors benefited from your selection & faith in many stocks.
Good luck in 2014.
Saleem
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