Indices were strong then leaders in tech began faltering badly so we closed mixed. S&P 500 had highest close in history & Nasdaq made another intraday high in 14 years.
S&P 500 @ 1859.45, high 1867.92
RSI @ 64.09
CMF @ 0.217
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.44 to 1 in NYSE & .72 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.53 to 1 in NYSE & .88 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 200 in NYSE & 181 in Nasdaq
VIX Down .28% @ 14.00
Oil @ $102.59
Gold @ $1321.60
Canadian $ @ 89.25
In my portfolio :
Sold ZNGA @ $5.03
Bought TSL @ $16.03
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included ALU TSL
MGA JKS RVBD HMY CCJ WUBA MS....
Here is my weighting :
MU 32.56%
KOG 26.49%
SSRI 23.13%
TSL 10.78%
ALU 7.04%
Exposure 139%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
The fresh breakout week for the indices saw the portfolio gain 0.32% while the S&P added 1.26%.
Major weekly winners: JKS (+11.2%), YELP (+7.4% upon sale), NOW (+3.1% upon sale)
Major weekly losers: CLDX (-7.4%), DATA (-5.7%), RALY (-5.6%), SB (-3.3% from purchase)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +0.66%
S&P 500: +0.60%
I did some rotation this week out of secular growth stories into more cyclically-based ones as I felt the run was a bit overdone in the former group, and thought the weather effects were nearly over which could propel the latter group more. Here's how the portfolio looks now:
Top weighting: AAL (19%)
Middle weightings: BAC (11%) FDX (8%) CSOD (8%)
Lowest weightings (6.5-5.6%): MOS DATA AGU RALY PFPT SB CLDX JKS CNX
Cash: 0.1%
Closed Positions: YELP NOW
New Positions: SB BAC
Trim: AGU
Add-on: FDX
So this week saw some of the highest fliers make blowoff tops. Reporting stocks like WDAY, CRM, and SPLK all saw sharp losses on Friday, and many similar went with them like YELP, N, CNQR, DATA, and CSOD. I think end of month flows and an uncertain US economy contributed to massive chasing and short squeezing which ended Friday. It sets up now for all these stocks to rest for many weeks in my opinion as catalysts and flows have exhausted themselves.
As these stocks rest, I think we could see both improving flows and data for regular cyclical stocks. Heading into March allows portfolio managers to see the light at the end of the weather tunnel, and pent up demand could really propel the market and those stocks forward. Financials, industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary could be some of these winners.
The big question mark is the effect of the Ukraine situation on the markets. As of this weekend, the conflict has worsened with Russia apparently seizing control of parts of Ukraine through military troop movements. Although these particular parts of Ukraine were Russian-sympathetic already and this control might have eventually happened anyways, the intervention from Russia has the EU and US very angry. It also makes people wonder if Russia will make a bolder move into Ukraine either politically or militarily. This uncertainty will likely weigh on markets until a clearer path to the future is seen.
The majority of earnings this week are Chinese names with portfolio name JKS leading Monday morning along with CLDX. Some others include SSYS (Mon AM), TSL (Tue AM), YY (Tue PM), CSIQ (Wed AM), and QIHU (Thu PM).
Altogether, I think patience will be the name of the game Monday. Certainly with stocks opening under pressure unless compromises are reached pre-market, we need to wait and see how things play out in Ukraine. The fear will likely be worst first thing as unprepared traders or investors sell first and ask questions later. This may be the time to pick up some bargains if you have free cash, and I'll be watching the agriculture and energy prices as they are most directly impacted by a Ukranian crisis.
Ready for a bumpy ride...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
My read on Ukraine is neutral but that may not prevent CNBC & FOX to play it up for rating value.
Hopefully laggards may shine this week.
Your portfolio is doing better than S&P 500 which is a good thing.
Good luck with earnings.
Saleem
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