It was an interesting week when TAPE was deeply oversold & staged an impressive snapback.
We are sitting @ 1797.22, high was 1798.02. This was a rally of 60.11 points or 3.46% from the bottom.
The question IS.....where do we go from here?
Based on the momentum @ hand we may go towards 1815 area & then mark time & build another base.
SO...ahead we see resistance around 1815......we may come back a little to test 1790 area......
This TAPE is extremely volatile & runs on news UP or DOWN......
This TAPE is a "swing traders dream"
Buy & Hold may take a back seat in 2014.
As far as Carter Worth is concerned his "crystal ball " is saying that "bounce is over" & take your money & run.......
Bulls are 45.9% & bears are 17.4%.......
Money Managers are extremely bearish & not buying this dip. They are expecting further downward move towards 10% correction......
Based on where we are, it is wise to have reduced exposure & trade opportunistically.
Booking profit when you have is a good mantra.
Once earnings are out of the way, market may need another catalyst which is not on the horizon.
Chinese slowdown & Emerging market troubles will plague this TAPE.
A conservative approach is the name of the game.
2014 is not like 2011 or 2012 or 2013...it remains highly volatile.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
5 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Bought MOS @ 46.73.
I was hoping to buy this later in the day for cheaper, but it seems to be moving in the up direction ahead of earnings. I'm hoping to use my knowledge from the POT conference call to make some gains on MOS post-earnings. I am more overweight than I want in fertilizer now, so will be looking to trim something in the future.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Added to AAL @ 35.72 to use the rest of my cash. They got added to a Cowen conviction buy list today.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with your "conviction buy in MOS & AAL"
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
AAL is now ~19.3% of the portfolio, but given the P/E and likely conservative estimates even still, I can't think of a "safer" play with great upside.
I haven't had a stock this heavily weighted for a long time.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
AAL has gone UP from $23 to $36....that is a trendline which IS impressive.....
It is all about "conviction".....
Saleem
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