Jobs data came in better than expected @ 175K. S&P 500 jumped to a new all time high & closing high.
S&P 500 @ 1878.04, high 1883.57
RSI @ 66.40
CMF @ 0.221
Internals were :
Down volume led by 1.30 to 1 in NYSE & 1.28 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.40 to 1 in NYSE & 1.04 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 186 in NYSE & 148 in Nasdaq
VIX Down .70% @ 14.11
Oil @ $102.58
Gold @ $1338.20
Canadian $ @ 89.11 on job loss in Canada
Stocks which closed green included KOG TSL
COH LULU JCP MGA M MA DNKN
EXPE V ARUN BRCM JDSU GS
PANW WUBA MS TRLA.....
Here is my weighting :
MU 32.30%
KOG 28.84%
EGO 28.47%
TSL 10.39%
Exposure 145%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A productive week for the indices was great for the portfolio. I gained 4.31% versus the S&P's +1.00%.
Major weekly winners: SB (+12.3%), JKS (+10.0%), WUBA (+8.4% buy/sell), AAL (+5.7%), BALT (+4.9% from purchase), BAC (+4.9%)
Major weekly losers: CLDX (-10.6% upon sale), DRYS (-2.2% from purchase)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +5.00%
S&P 500: +1.61%
This week I made major shifts out of the high fliers and into regular cyclical stocks. This worked very well in many cases to both avoid losses and make fresh gains. Here's the current look of the portfolio:
Major positions:
AAL - 19.4%
FDX - 16.5%
BAC - 16.1%
Other Positions:
AXLL - 8.3%
MOS - 6.3%
SB - 6.3%
AGU - 6.1%
JKS - 6.0%
DRYS - 5.0%
BALT - 4.8%
Cash - 5.1%
Closed Positions: CLDX CNX PFPT RALY DATA CSOD
New Positions: BALT DRYS AXLL(Thu)
Add-ons: BAC FDX AXLL(Fri)
Buy/Sell Intraweek: WUBA SPLK
In the market this week we saw further rotation out of the previous high fliers (WDAY CNQR N SPLK DATA etc.) and into the traditional cyclicals like financials and industrials. Many losses in the previous group were 4+% despite the up market while many in the latter group gained 4+%. I'm not sure how long this rotation will continue, but I think the previous high fliers will continue to see profit taking that will limit upside for now. The best alpha seems to be with the traditional cyclicals.
I think the rationale for this rotation lies in the fact that the economy is likely to see some catch-up now that the weather is warming. The relatively low P/Es of traditional cyclicals compared to astronomical P/Es of the high fliers can be ignored if the economy is experiencing sluggishness as investors look solely for growth, but as the economy starts to ramp, the cyclicals represent great values with growing earnings.
I've tried to get comfortable with various cyclical names, but I'll admit my expertise in this area is lacking some. I've obviously liked AAL for some time based on a huge shift in the airline industry that should see improved profits for many years, but also likely the last airline merger allowed by the government. I like FDX for the huge shift to online purchasing which seemed to inflect this holiday season. I expect this uptrend to last for years as consumers turn to Internet shopping for convenience and price. BAC is my generic financial, but specifically picked due to nice earnings last quarter and a very heavy domestic focus.
In the more beta side of the portfolio I have many shippers (SB DRYS BALT) and fertilizer firms (MOS AGU). The $BDI has made a steady climb in the last three weeks despite some international uncertainty. Some companies like DRYS are extremely cheap if the improved trend lasts which appears likely for now. The fertilizers are seeing improved prices for their nutrients given a bottoming in supply and crop prices much higher in recent weeks due to worldwide droughts and potentially late plantings in the US. Throw in a chemical company like AXLL which should benefit from improved housing trends and decreasing natural gas prices, as well as a Chinese solar stock to capitalize on China's ever-growing pollution threat, and you have my portfolio in total.
Overall, I expect the general market to grind higher. There will be many rotational days to keep us honest, but I don't see a reason to sell stocks here with the economy likely to improve and many investors still skeptical. Key spots to watch are internationally-based with Ukraine for geopolitical and China for economic problems.
Good luck to all! :)
Stocktrader
Hi stocktrader,
You are in "overdrive mose again" in terms of portfolio gains.
You have made strategic shifts in a timely manner which few can do.
Your thesis is validated by your performance.
Good luck !
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
I meant to say MODE...
Saleem
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