Right before open S&P downgraded Russia's credit rating to BBB-, one level above junk. Immediately Russia's Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis to 7.50%.......rest is history.....
S&P 500 @ 1863.40, low 1859.70, high 1877.72
RSI @ 51.01
CMF @ 0.135
Internals were :
Down volume led by 3.10 to 1 in NYSE & 5.45 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 2.00 to 1 in NYSE & 4.92 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 39 in NYSE & lows were leading by 31 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 5.56% @ 14.06
Oil @ $100.60
Gold @ $1300.80
Canadian $ @ 89.58
Stocks which closed green included GG OTEX BIDU
AAPL SPWR CRUS AMCC AG YUM SBUX
MCD ABX SLW AEM GIB AGU TZA.....
Here is my weighting :
MU 36.65%
LULU 29.93%
WUBA 21.34%
GRPN 6.38%
OWW 5.70%
Exposure 173%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A volatile week saw the portfolio gain 1.89% versus the S&P's nearly flat -0.08%.
Weekly Winners: JKS (+8.9%), WUBA (+5.9% buy/sell), TZA (+4.7% from purchase), PFPT (+2.6% upon sale)
Weekly Losers: SPLK (-6.6% upon sale), TRIP (-2.7% upon sale), DATA (-2.2% upon sale)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: -4.04%
S&P 500: +0.81%
After rallying Monday and Tuesday when everything seemed fine again after no weekend Ukraine problems and a good report from NFLX, Wednesday was a profit taking day that set the stage for the rest of the week. AAPL and FB seemed to support stocks Thursday morning, but FB rolled over and NOW cratered after good results. This selling affected the whole market on Friday, especially in light of stepped up Ukrainian rhetoric.
My biggest moves this week were selling all my high growth stocks Wednesday when things didn't seem right, and setting up a short hedge on Thursday. Both moves worked well and helped the portfolio outperform. Here's how it looks now:
TZA - 24%
GM - 11%
AAL - 10%
MOS - 9%
JKS - 7%
(cash) - 39%
Closed Positions: CLDX SGMO PANW PFPT NOW SPLK DATA TRIP YELP
New Position: TZA
Buy/Sell: WUBA
Add-on: JKS
The relentless selling in the high-growth/high- or no-PE stocks continues, and I think a lot of the drop can be attributed to lack of buying interest since volume is above average, but not necessarily heavy. This means institutions do not find compelling reasons to own these stocks, and barring a major takeover which supports valuation in the group, I suspect this avoidance will continue, at least through the end of the month, if not throughout the summer as volumes wane. I will be waiting to see if any good earnings report will lift the group.
As for the overall market, it is a bit difficult to figure out. I think the $COMPX is setting up a fairly well designed head-and-shoulders pattern, although the speed of the 2nd shoulder forming suggests too many people are wishcasting this outcome (compare to a 1.5 month formation of the 1st shoulder). And although the S&P seems to have some head-and-shoulder characteristics, I think *for now* it's more just an 1840-1880 range with recent stretches out in both directions.
The biggest positive factor in the markets is the anecdotal indications from many CEOs about a pickup in activity in April. If this continues, we could see better economic and profit numbers ahead. On the other hand, actual reported economic data has been mixed so far with housing specifically not yet seeing a spring bump (although some housing CEOs are seeing this differently too, probably due to geographies). We will get many more data points this week including pending home sales Monday, ISM manufacturing and auto sales Thursday, and of course jobs Friday. We even get a 1st quarter GDP number on Wednesday, but this should have little impact given the backward-looking nature of the number and the weather problems early this year.
This leads into more earnings and guidance this week. I will be watching carefully the likes of BWLD, DDD, TWTR, CMI, TRLA, YELP, PFPT, ETN, and LNKD, and the stock reactions post-earnings. Although these reactions might be distorted based on month end/beginning flows, it still should give a good signal as to the health of the market.
Yet another event this week is the Fed meeting which concludes on Wednesday. Little change is expected from the Fed as they continue down their path of tapering, but I expect *strong* language to indicate keeping rates very low for a long time. We shall see if this is enough for the market in terms of talk.
Overall, I think the bulls are slightly confused and the bears think they are in control. This could lead to more immediate downside, but I caution getting too caught up in the bearish sentiment. Although there will be talk of technical patterns and seasonal mantras ("sell in May and go away"), this might actually present the great buying opportunity as the economic activity picks up into the summer.
Be on the lookout for bargains! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Your strategy worked like a charm & you beat S&P 500 by a mile....good work.
Saleem
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