Indices waited for margin clerks to sell under margin accounts to be on side. Last hour TAPE repeated its strength & closed near high of the day. Always watch how we close to know IF we have strength or not.
S&P 500 @ 1877.86, high 1878.28, low 1864.82.
RSI @ 51.42
CMF @ 0.174
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.68 to 1 in NYSE & 1.67 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 2.05 to 1 in NYSE & 1.60 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 42 in NYSE & lows were leading by 64 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 5.54% @ 12.44
Oil @ $102.22
Gold @ $1293.41
Canadian $ @ 91.18
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included WUBA LULU OWW
M TSLA KORS AAPL DNKN EBAY V CRUS LRCX
SNDK AMCC LSCC NFLX PANW SBUX MS
TRLA Z........
Here is my weighting @ close :
LULU 33.78%
WUBA 22.43%
SWIR 16.97%
MU 13.91%
OWW 6.81%
GRPN 6.10%
Exposure 179%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A flat week for the market was not as kind for the portfolio. It lost 2.01% versus the S&P's -0.03%.
Weekly Winners: Z (+9.5%), M (+3.0% upon sale), PFPT (+2.7%)
Weekly Losers: WLH (-7.3%), JKS (-7.1% upon sale), TZA (-4.8% from purchase)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: -5.96%
S&P 500: +1.60%
Russell 2000: -5.22%
A huge rally on Monday looked like the start of the official breakout to new highs. Unfortunately, the rest of the week was more sluggish, and shaking off Tepper's comments by Friday left us nearly even on the week. I was spooked by the action Thursday and rotated out of some cyclical stocks in favor of a TZA hedge, which worked out very poorly and hurt the overall portfolio performance by more than 1.5%. Here's the portfolio now:
Hedge (33.0%): TZA
Top Holdings (11.3-11.0%): GM AAL
Middle Holding (9.0%): WLH
Others Holdings (6.9-4.6%): YELP AXLL DATA PFPT NOW Z
Cash: 0.2%
Closed Positions: SPLK M FDX JKS MS
New Positions: AXLL(Mon) NOW TZA
Add-ons: AXLL(Wed) WLH DATA YELP
Trimmed: AAL
So, another week with not much changed. The divergence between the 10-yr and the market grows worse, and the choppiness of the market generally is eating people up, including me. The technical picture is staying pretty constant, and this certainly looks like a holding period until we get a break either way. It may come down to whether the rebound in economic data from the bad weather starts to roll over again or not. Skepticism and bearish prognostications are certainly high enough to get a great rally if we indeed move higher, but there's also a lot of slower long money that has been standing pat so far and may start to liquidate if earnings momentum slows. For me, I don't think it wise to predict either direction right now since I've been fooled too much this year already.
The high beta stocks did show stabilization this week as predicted, but in order to get a true rally started, we really need some letup in insider selling or IPOs or a nice buyout offer for a *public* company. With many of these stocks well below the 200 DMA right now, I am starting to think it might just be a boring, base-building summer. The action post-earnings of CRM on Tuesday could be a major signal for short term direction.
I need to personally focus on more patience--there are many days recently where the action in the morning goes very opposite by the afternoon. By not recognizing this, I am getting worse prices for entries and exits, and also put on my TZA hedge at a horrible time. I plan to unwind that hedge as soon as I can without account restrictions (Tuesday), and then may pare back some stock positions too. The appropriate amount of exposure for this rangebound market is probably 50-65% until we get clearer direction.
With the market uncertain, and summer approaching, volumes are likely to get even lower in the coming weeks and beyond. It is important to not get too involved until we show a clear directional market or certain stocks if they show that same clear direction. Sometimes the market does just chop around--and trading quickly in those kinds of markets is disastrous.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
It is important to recognize change in TAPE and adjust accordingly.
Sloppy TAPE is not a good thing.
Saleem
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