Indices closed mixed digesting gains from last 2 weeks.
S&P 500 @ 2017.81, low 2013.68, high 2024.46
RSI @ 65.25
CMF @ 0.117
Internals were :
Down volume led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & .74 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.03 to 1 in NYSE & 1.25 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 216 in NYSE & by 96 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 4.99% @ 14.73
Oil @ $78.78
Gold @ $1169.80
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included MU
SWIR OTEX YELP EXPE LNKD AAPL
OWW BABA TSL FFIV WB SPWR
HIMX ARUN CRUS SLW AEM....
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, TAPE is in digestive phase and may continue so for a while. All indices made a fresh all time highs in S&P 500 & Dow and a new closing high since March 2000 in Nasdaq. Earnings reaction will be based on future trend. BABA is all set to report and may give lift to technology stocks. It is good to wait for any fresh buys until we complete this digestive phase. Diversified approach and patience works.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
11 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Sold RAD @ 5.351 after a great run.
Waiting for AKS's conference call. Operational execution looks good--we'll see how the street views this furnace outage for Q4.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold BTU @ 10.25.
I bought this for an election play and thoughts that energy had stabilized. Both of these ideas may have played out even though BTU is the best of the coal companies. It's too hard this time of year to buy the beaten up companies.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good move with RAD and BTU.
Can you give your recap of AKS earning and cc,not behaving well.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
The conference call starts in about an hour. I think the early selloff is more related to general materials weakness, so I'm looking to see if management commentary will provide some lift.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your reply, I have to step out for an hour and will miss cc. Please give a recap when you get a chance.
Saleem
Prepared remarks:
gaining share in auto which is 50% of business
electrical steel book improving
on track in meeting or exceeding synergy targets of new acquisition
iron ore pellet production started ahead of schedule
only 1/3rd vertically integrated to allow for cost benefits from dropping raw prices
$300M decrease in cash commitments for 2015, result of nearly completed investments in business as well as much lower pension contributions, allows for much greater cash flows going forward
They are going over financials now which are detailed in the press release.
Q&A to follow
Q&A:
hopes they can achieve better Q4 results than Q3, hesitant to give guidance until normal December timeline
iron ore contract with CLF may have some floor pricing stipulations, but they are good partners and will work to benefit both companies in long run
effect of lower raw materials costs takes a while to flow through, will impact Q4 and 2015 more than Q3
not obligated to contribute more capital to iron ore JV (Magnetation), may do so if it benefits both companies, but likely minimal
have plenty of raw materials for winter in case of another "Polar Vortex" which limited supplies last year
Dearborn facility loses the Ford F-150 contract due to aluminum switch, hopes to make it up elsewhere as they are growing 12% per year vs 6% industry
lots of upside left in electrical steel, volume and prices increased recently
End of Call
Hey Saleem,
The comment about potentially better Q4 results than Q3 comes despite the moved up maintenance plans for the furnace. Originally it had been scheduled for 2015. Also, the overall costs for maintenance and outage will only come to $30M versus previous estimates of $42M.
These guys were very upbeat. It was an enjoyable call.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thank you so much for your detailed coverage of AKS cc.
I may add more shares today.
Saleem
Hi Salem, I thought natural gas would inflate to catch up with oil but looks like oil will deflate to the 16 to 1 ratio meaning we might see 64 ? Thanks charlie
Hi Charlie,
You may be close on oil price projection.
Saleem
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