Sunday, November 30, 2014

Market looks to Draghi & Jobs data for direction.......

TAPE has been on a tear as it celebrated collapse of Oil price.......

Oil is an important part of US economy and its collapse may not be as fruitful as it has been portrayed......short term gain can become long term pain.....artificially low low gasoline prices may encourage wasteful habits....

Dec 4th is when Draghi takes the center stage again and not much will be spelled out but same old same old rhetoric, that may result in negative action on world markets.

Jobs data in US on Friday should easily beat 228 K expectations, thus positive for market.

This may be the week when Oil stabilizes and commodities snap back.

Market internals were weak on Friday and may follow through on Monday until close, thus Monday may not be good for most equities.

Any pullback on Tuesday may trigger "turnaround Tuesday buying"

Wednesday may be flattish due to ECB decision and statement on Thursday AM before open, expect foot dragging by Draghi until next year...Thursday may be another down day in US.....

There is less than 4 weeks left in the year, 26th December is the last day of trading for us mortals, institutions can play it till the last second of 28th December.

Plan your tax strategy accordingly.

I am not expecting much from overall indices until Friday's trading, contrary trades like Oil, Gold, Commodities are ready to snapback. in coming week.

Remember nothing goes down endless and beneficiary of any collapse may reverse.

Start planning for 2015 and hopefully, we may have a normal market which means logical UP or DOWN movements.

Good luck with your strategy !

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

4 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

It was a great week for me with a 2.38% gain versus flattish indices thanks to big gains in AAL (+12%) and TASR (+11%).

I think if it wasn't December, there would be more global fears regarding the low commodity price implications. Instead, we'll likely do that "float" into year-end.

It is extremely important to be in the relative strength winners now--poorly performing stocks won't catch a bid.

It was a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend visiting family out-of-state! :)

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

I am happy that your portfolio outperformance has resumed.

Yes it is important to bond with family and friends during holidays.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I'm looking hard at KOG right now. Even if oil just stabilizes, it should do better.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

They are highly leveraged with debt..not sure IF they can meet their obligation with lower oil prices?

Saleem