Sunday, November 2, 2014

TAPE has lost its rhythm ?

There is such a thing as "logical moves in markets"......

BUT ...we have lost total control on any sense of logical moves....

What i am trying to point out, that there has been totally irrational movement in TAPE....

In a span of six weeks we have gone down from 2019 to 1820 in 18 trading days and then we go from 1820 to 2018 in last 12 trading days which is either a loss of 198 points or almost 11% in both moves....

I personally have not seen a move of this type ever in quick V formation.....maybe historian will look @ this when it points to something major ?

To make a point, we need to be careful when TAPE is this volatile, either supercomputers have taken charge or something is brewing which is not normal.

Now to market, we need to digest gains of almost 198 points in S&P 500.....which may mean pulling back to 50 DMA for support or even to 200 DMA for major support.

IF we don't pull back soon then the slump will be more severe or intense.

Some former leaders have not fared well in earnings like FB & TWTR which is not a good sign....

TAPE is in some kind of flux as most stocks are not faring well.

Oil & Gold are making multi year lows which is not a good thing.....

Coal & Base metals are not faring well which does not speak well of China recovery.

All in all "caution" is required.....

Most pundits are extremely bullish, which generally does not pan out.

SO..it is back to stock pickers market, as most are not acting well.

Good luck with your diversified approach.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

7 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

It certainly seems like "all clear" into the end of the year. I expect volatility to drift lower as stocks creep higher. Maybe another 5% by year end?

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

I dont like straight line down and immediately Up with no base building..sign of something..not sure what..

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

Bought AKS @ 7.48.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck to both of us. AKS has acted well so far.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

So far this year management has proved they are great executors. I'm looking for this to continue as they talk about the current environment and their plans for the acquisition integration.

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

Added to BALT @ 3.835.

This stock is very undervalued if these Baltic dry rates hold. The capesize rates are actually 41.2% *above* last year's levels, and we know how these stocks did at the end of last year...

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with add on in BALT.

Saleem