TAPE has been fighting many challenges in last few weeks.
-Greece is the biggest issue in near term....
-US Fed hiking interest rate is the second biggest fear....
-Oil got everybody's attention......
-US$ is staring down many currencies
US and European markets are trying to ignore all of the above issues and looking @ short term gains plus long term effect of the above....
Greece situation should resolve by end of February when all negotiations will come to avert a major default.....
US Fed hiking interest rates will wait till 2nd half of this year, so June is the month to increase .25% hike .
Oil is finding support above $42 area and may build UP from here to touch $60 and may stay there for a while.....when oil hits $60, all the gains to lower gasoline prices may evaporate in a hurry, gas prices goes UP much faster......
US$ may be hitting its ceiling soon and may come down a touch to give upward bias to Oil, Gold ,Commodities......
All US indices are staring @ old highs, Dow only 280 points away, S&P 500 only 88 points away and Nasdaq only 70 points away.....
I am expecting that in current TAPE, we should take out highs of January 2015 easily.....which means all time new highs for Dow & S&P 500, while Nasdaq may be inching towards 5000++ by March 2015......
Most stocks are finding buyers, as they all have rested for a while and have been taken down in January meltdown......
It may be the right time to overweight your exposure in a diversified portfolio, i am @ my highest exposure in 2 years and may increase it further. I am much more optimistic after a corrective phase like January selling.
SO...investing environment is much more stable in February compared to January, take advantage of this stability and find good strong stocks to grow your portfolio.
Good luck with your own due diligence and careful analysis.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
10 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A disastrous week for my portfolio as I lost 1.47% in the midst of strong 3+% rallies in the indices. Selling out on Monday worked for about 5 hours, and then it was off to the races for the rest of the week while I scrambled to recover. YELP dropping 20% was the major disappointment.
The path forward looks more constructive, although global fears on various days will bring good buying opportunities. After this steady earnings season, plus strong underlying job growth, I think buying the dips in US stocks is the right move.
Despite such a horrible relative performance this week, I'm only lagging the S&P by 1.5% on the year. I hope selectively smart buying will make that up over time :).
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Bought FB @ 74.05.
Have an order waiting to buy PRU.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
After chasing PRU this morning as the 10-yr continued to tick higher, I bought @ 77.40. I figured this was my chance to get some financials exposure after the selloff post-earnings was overdone.
I bought FB due to predictable growth and further opportunities to monetize their platforms.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
My tablet is not able to talk to my BLOG..have been trying with Google to solve this issue, but no luck so far.This delays my reply to you as i have to go to my PC.
I know last week was challenging for me also thanks to GPRO.
Good luck with FB & PRU.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I hope you can solve your tablet issues--nothing more frustrating than devices that don't work correctly.
The $VIX move today is unusual. I like the dynamic that people are nervous but the market is holding ok. That makes for good base building.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold the remaining YELP @ 43.442.
I think the risk/reward is balanced here, but without a catalyst could just keep drifting lower. The biggest upside comes from a takeover potential, but buyers are likely reluctant right now--the stock will have to get cheaper first.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Writing to google for a week now..no resolution yet....
When stock price collapses, it takes a while to find support, GPRO is in the same boat as YELP.
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
Sold KORS @ $72.52
Added 90% GPRO @ $44.63
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Nice KORS trade--quick money!
Good luck with GPRO. It does feel like a bottom could be near.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Hopefully we have found support in GPRO.
KORS was a 48 hour play, almost $5 per share gain....
Saleem
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