Sunday, February 22, 2015

Are we @ top of the range in this TAPE ?

TAPE has gone through spirited buying in last 3 weeks of February and made series of all time highs in Dow & S&P 500 while Nasdaq is 45 points away from magic 5,000......

Here is the read on RSI in the above index :

Dow @ 62.23

S&P 500 @ 64.07

Nasdaq @ 70.02

In any market, it is important to keep an eye on potential headwind.

We have reacted to many positive development like Greece debt extension & Ukraine agreement.

We need to digest gains and build another base to move from.

Oil is behaving much better than some Wall Street hedge funds like to see, this is a huge positive for many oil producers.

Gold could be the biggest beneficiary of upcoming base building in equities.

Russell which is @ all time high also may have more upside while Nasdaq rests.

Many security stocks are "dangerously overbought"...correction may be severe.

US$ resurgence is creating havoc in many economies and is forcing many countries to devalue their currency, US$ strength is taking a toll in earnings of many multinationals as they report their earnings in US$.....they have to convert foreign earning which are weaker currencies into strong US$, so they get less US$ than before.....

It is important to book gains ASAP as market pulls back to get rid of exuberance & euphoria.

Look for weaker stocks with good potential to buy on weakness.

Do more research to find stocks with better potential.

We may see end of the month selling to lock gains by hedge funds.

All in all, we may be looking @ couple of weeks of weaker tape.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

8 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I see no reason for pullback here other than too bullish sentiment (which can be a good reason). With Greece out of the way, we can focus on gradually improving European data combined with our strong, but not too strong, data. A stabilization in the euro and global economies will provide multinational support, and domestic stocks can continue grinding higher. I think full exposure is still the way to go.

The portfolio did nicely on the week, up 2.43%, despite a stumble in HUN. TTPH, Z, AAL, FB, and PANW all provided nice gains. I have 9.5% cash, roughly one position size, to find a good opportunity. SPLK earnings are my highlight this week, but I just can't get in after such a huge run...once again I find myself on the wrong end of this trade. At least most everything else is working well :).

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

My views are always extremely short term from trading point of view. It is not about my personal trades @ all, it is for those who are daytraders or max 48 hour traders......

BLOG objective has not changed since inception....to read what traders needs to be mindful......

70 RSI in Nasdaq calls for caution.....for two weeks.....

Your portfolio is on a roll based on good strategic picks......

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

Sold TTPH @ 41.45 to take profits.

It has had a lot of positive news recently and may need to consolidate those gains.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

That was quick profit in TTPH....try try and try until you make money, a good example of perseverance...

No luck with tablet posting, only way it will work when i delete everything from my tablet, which i am not prepared to do..i have duplicated my PC in my tablet, lot of documents, songs and photos to delete.

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

Wow, I can't believe such tablet problems--I wonder what changed? Maybe it will fix just as mysteriously some day.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

I went to google help for many days and i have done everything they suggested plus 10 more things to correct this issue..no luck for almost 3 weeks....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hey Saleem,

I see both MSFT and GPRO hitting highs of the day? Coincidence or buyout? :) I haven't heard anything, nor have I ever heard of MSFT being a potential suitor for them, but it does make some sense as MSFT tries to get cloudy and cool :). It was just an observation I made while staring at my screens and it kind of worked.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Any beaten down stock is a buyout candidate..GPRO fits that bill to a t.

That will definitely make my day and end my suffering....

Saleem