2015 ended on a very sour note, here is the stat for the month of January:
Russell 2000 Down 1.92%
Nasdaq Down 2.13%
S&P 500 Down 3.10%
Dow Down 3.69%
Gold UP (GLD ) 8.82% Month, UP 3.17% in 52 wks
Oil Down Down 56.65% in 52 wks
US$ vs Canadian$ UP 14.31% in 52 wks
It is interesting to see that only GLD & US$ is up on the month and year.
January is giving a disturbing trendline.
We ended January with a close which was @ low of the day.
Last day of January saw a "huge reversal in oil" with a gain of 8.33%
2015 is shaping to be a "very challenging year"
Based on how we ended January with many good news from ECB, US economic strength, Oil stabilizing, good earning report form AAPL,AMZN,GOOG,BRCM.....but it all meant nothing to prop up US market. On the contrary, European markets are @ high of the year, DAX UP 14.09% in 52 wks......
It is important to understand that old metrics may not work, old strategy may not work......
2015 in US market may be barely UP for the year......
Very few stocks may participate in any gain for the year.
Those stocks which has been depressed or cut down in half or more, may show some life, as they are deeply oversold. It is the "dog of the market theory, which may work"
Instead of strength, look for weak stocks in a challenged market.
Contrary play may be the best play.....
2015 is just that kind of market. where old & reliable may not work.
SO...be very careful with what you know, look for new ideas to survive in 2015.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
7 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A great week followed by a very challenging one saw the portfolio lose 2.85% to remain only up +0.01% on the year (but better than the averages still).
The only notable winners were SSYS (+3.0% upon sale) and NOW (+3.1% after purchase) with big losers of AAL (-11.9% upon sale) and SPLK ETN YELP (-3.5-4% upon sale) and SPLK losing even more after a repurchase.
My current portfolio is SPLK PANW PFPT AAL NOW KSS AEMD to try and capitalize on good earnings from the "new tech" sector and previously good momentum in oil-weak plays which might be over now?
The charts of the averages and individual stocks are all looking rough. The Fed indicated Wednesday it was still on track for tightening this summer, and that is making Europe and Asia look better with easier monetary policy. If this trend continues, the US small caps could do especially poorly due to lack of flows and incrementally harder policy without the boost of a much improving economy.
I am nervous, and plan to reduce exposure, possibly to 0. I just get the feeling that there will be a better buying opportunity at some future point rather that right now.
Be careful everyone!
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold SPLK @ 52.13.
Sadly, it has the worst chart of the bunch.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold KSS @ 61.001.
Nice pop to sell today :)
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold PFPT @ 49.733.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Did some more trimming:
Sold NOW @ 71.742
Sold AAL @ 47.87
I remember that with a lot of the high growth stocks, you get a big lull after earnings--it's not the right time for NOW.
I really think we might be hitting a bottom in oil as rigs are coming offline more quickly than I expected. This could hurt the sentiment in airlines even more, so despite the extremely low P/E, I think there is danger here. I almost sold last Thursday near close at the $52 level after it had bounced nicely from Wednesday's post-earnings selloff. I should have been more aggressive--I could have saved some nice money...
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
X and JKS look interesting here. I am tempted!
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Just got back , saw your selling.
Yes Chinese Solar and any dog of the market is a better idea.
Saleem
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