Indices were in a freefall and closed @ absolute low of the day. Chinese slowdown and US interest rate hike causing panic all around. Many records were set today @ close, here are few important ones :
Oil faced largest straight line slump in last 30 years
Stock faced the worst weekly slump since 2011
VIX was UP the most in a week ever
These are tell tale of a deeply oversold market with majority giving up on stocks this week....
S&P 500 @ 1970.89, low 1970.89, high 2034.08
S& P 500 RSI @ 24.84
Nasdaq RSI @ 24.50
DOW RSI @ 22.20
CMF @ -0.024
Internals were :
Down volume led by 17.33 to 1 in NYSE & 6.40 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 6.03 to 1 in NYSE & 2.09 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 610 in NYSE & 305 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 46.45% @ 28.03
Oil @ 40.45
Gold @ $1159.60
Canadian $ @ 68.25
Here is my weighting :
LULU 31.82%
FB 31.57%
RAD 12.52%
GPRO 12.43%
VDSI 11.66%
Exposure 272%
We are deeply oversold and are due for an "oversold bounce".....I have no intention of selling anything in my portfolio......
PS....I am on vacation for a week starting this Sunday, hopefully stocktrader will update this page in comment section on a daily basis after close or any thoughts during the day, This vacation was planned long time ago. I will be back with Sunday BLOG on 30th of August @ 2 PM.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
17 comments:
Hi All,
A brutal Monday in the markets saw the indices close down nearly 4%, but well off early morning deep lows. Market internals were incredibly poor: NYSE stock down/up ratio was 20:1 and new 52-wk highs were only 3 versus 1230 new 52-wk lows. The $VIX closed at 40.74 after being as high as 53.29 (and it didn't even work during the first half hour of trading!)
All short term indicators including the RSI at 18.33 are screaming for a rebound day, which corresponds nicely with the traditional "Turnaround Tuesday". Given the rout started on Thursday, the standard crash calendar seems to be in play with today's volume being climactic.
After hours futures are signaling a >100pt DJIA rise on open, but much could change by market open. Be ready for more volatility including another scare dip when the market looks like it may fall apart. This is part of a normal bottoming process when conviction names should be bought if cash is available. Any question marks in the portfolio can be sold when the oversold rally ensues.
Good luck to all in these crazy times!
Stocktrader
Hi stocktrader,
Thanks for the update. I thought it is coming to an end. Often market fools us. Let us hope things will work in our way. GL
Thanks stock trader!!
Hi All,
Thanks for the comments. I'm trying to help how I can :)
Our "Turnaround Tuesday" looked great from the start but faded completely by close to turn the markets red, closing nearly on the absolute lows. The internals were not horrible with combined decliners only ahead of advancers 1.2:1, but with volume skewed towards the down side 2.4:1. New 52-wk highs reached only 2 on the NYSE, but 52-wk lows did contract from yesterday's 1230 to only 252. The $VIX fell 4.72 to close at 36.02, but it remains extremely elevated.
The RSI now sits at an incredibly low 16.77 for the S&P 500. We have not seen a level this low since 8/8/11 and never in the whole 2008-09 crisis did we get this low (prior time was 9/21/01). So, we are still set up for some kind of huge rebound rally, but traders are not interested in "paying up" for stocks. Either we need a specific catalyst that induces a real chase higher, or we need another extreme washout open to start the massive sustained buying from lower levels when investors feel more comfortable with the prices they have paid.
Futures are again about +90 for the DJIA, but much could change as the Chinese market digests the rate cuts overnight and determines if it is enough for now. I personally hope the market finds a way to start down 200, because I think that would be a great chance to find more permanent buyers.
Good luck to all!
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Sold PANW and AMZN to take profits after a good couple days. Also, the Fed seems like they really want to still raise rates this year and high beta stocks may get hurt.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Bought PRU to try and get some more interest rate exposure.
Stocktrader
Hi All,
We saw a huge Wednesday as the traders got a dip, and then we ripped! Indices were up ~4% across the board. Breadth was better, but surprisingly tame on this kind of day with NYSE advancers 4:1 over decliners and NASDAQ only 3:1. Combined volume breadth was better at 7.5:1 towards the upside. 52-highs/lows were almost a copy of yesterday's at 2 versus 242 on the NYSE. The $VIX pulled back again, closing -5.70 to 30.32.
After starting 400+ to the upside again today, we drooped until midday fearful of another late selloff. We got as low +120 at 12:45ET before we realized the selling was over and the market went straight up into close. The oversold condition finally kicked in and the rally was vicious. Even though the RSI jumped to 33.99 by close, we are still very oversold and I expect an upside bias to continue unless something dramatically bad and new happens.
Futures are currently sitting +80 despite the huge rally. Our multi-day resistance levels are right here on the futures charts, above which we have good room to run. Given that many traders/investors probably missed today's "surprise" up move, I think the chances for breakout are good as the world calms from panic levels.
Big after hours movers include: WDAY -8.9%, AVGO +1.6%, PVH +5.2%.
Good luck to all!
Stocktrader
Thanks stock trader!
Hi All,
What a great Thursday! Instead of profit taking after yesterday's rally, we saw the indices up another 2.3-2.5%. Breadth improved to a combined 5:1 advancers over decliners and volume skewed huge towards the advancers at nearly 16:1! New 52-wk highs and lows almost disappeared with only 5 new highs and 27 new lows on the NYSE. The $VIX dropped again, -4.22 to 26.10.
The market opened big and we didn't look back until around 2PM ET when a large drop ensued, wiping out all but +37.58 in the DJIA. This drop coincided almost exactly with a data feed problem across many systems, causing many traders to have no access to quotes. As soon as the data feeds turned back on, the market roared back to life closing up +369.26, an impressive last 53 minutes!
The economic data in the last two days has painted a comforting picture. The durable goods number from yesterday and the jobless claims from today show that the US economy has better current momentum than people realized. Even the 2Q GDP revision showed we had built up more strength than expected last quarter.
If I really think about the perceived world economic situation today versus how I felt about it Wednesday of last week, I can't say I really feel much different, and might even possibly be more encouraged today about world growth prospects after pretty good data in the US and Europe (China same problem situation but they have taken steps there too with the rate and RRR cut). The major difference between last Wednesday and today is the S&P index, 2090 versus 1990!
I don't want to say today that we can reach back to old levels quickly, but it makes me think there's a lot of people that sold massive amounts of stocks and may want those back in coming days. This drop seemed like a culmination of negative sentiment buildup and voracious technical selling during a waterfall-like decline. Even still on Tuesday (latest data we have), the "Investors Intelligence" survey reported the second highest number of investors calling for further correction in the last 30 years!
My advice is stay the course. It is ok to do some internal portfolio rotation if certain stocks show underperformance, but I think maximum exposure of your comfort level is prudent here.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Sorry if I posted the market summary and outlook pretty late tonight. We ran late errands, dinner, and showers/bed for kids. I hope I've been somewhat of a help during this tumultuous time. Thanks for the support!
Stocktrader
P.S. Forgot to mention: After hours movers SPLK +5.7% and ULTA +3.6% after earnings, FCX +17% more (was already +29% on the day) after Carl Icahn took a large stake. Also, DJIA futures down 40 pts.
Thanks for the update. I have a small position in fcx. I am just lucky. Otherwise I am losing money. once again thanks for the update. GL
Hi guys,
Was away for the morning and put in a buy offer for SPLK @ 62.17. I find out now it filled easily! SPLK has long been my favorite cloud/software play. I am happy to have it back finally even if I'm down currently.
Stocktrader
Hi Joseph Joseph,
Great job with FCX! I actually had a dream Tuesday night that FCX would hit 7.57 first thing Wednesday morning and it'd be the great bottom and I'd buy. Unfortunately, the huge gap up Wednesday took me away from that game plan, and FCX never got that low (7.76 bottom). Glad you could participate in such a huge move!
Stocktrader
Thanks for your encouraging words about FCX. It was pure luck. Any way I made some money. But I am losing money in my portfolio. Years back I had lost some money and so I am bit cautious with my investment and I take only small positions so that I can average it later incase the stock comes down. In a way it also hurts because we don't make much money.I just want you to know that I made some money with tza and tna.
Thanks for sharing your trades here. It does help me. I also plan to share trades here. I am only a novice in investing. Therefore no one should follow me. I don't want anyone to lose money. To be honest with you all, I follow my instinct rather than chart and fundamentals. Ultimately our goal is to make money. Thanks and GL
Hi All,
We saw a consolidation Friday to end the week with some tech outperforming as a bullish sign. The DJIA and S&P 500 were barely changed while the NASDAQ gained 0.3%. Breadth was 2:1 advancers on both NYSE and NASDAQ, while combined volume was 2.1:1 towards the advancers. NYSE new 52-wk highs and lows were 6 and 22. The $VIX ended officially down -.05 at 26.05 after being above 29 in the final 15 minutes!
It was a mostly quiet day with a few intraday dips and rebounds. The economic data was uneventful, and Fed Vice Chairman Fisher's comments were mixed, but still signaled the Fed's propensity to raise rates--I think the market is starting to be OK with this idea though. The standout mover was oil, up another 6% today after yesterday's +10% gain. The fact that we closed with a strong up move (+117 in last 17 minutes) is very positive considering our memories about what happened to late Friday buyers last weekend.
I encourage everyone to take this weekend to examine their portfolio. Although I recommend a high exposure still, it is important to be in your personal conviction names in case something does happen again.
Have a great weekend!
Stocktrader
thanks stocktrader - great job
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