Sunday, January 10, 2016

Painful last 7 trading days.....

So ...we are all feeling the pain of biggest slump in a while.

Remember only 5 months back Dow slumped 1000 points @ open...do you know the reason why we slumped so much and came back roaring with small loss.....

SO...in last 7 trading days Dow has lost 1450.31......vs 1000 point drop @ open last August.....

Everything should be looked @ with historical perspective....

First look @ carnage of last 7 trading days :

Russell lost 9.88%

Dow lost 8.15%

Nasdaq lost 8.06%

S&P 500 lost 7.66%

Here is my reliable indicator of RSI in all indices :

Russell 25.93

Nasdaq 27.31

Dow 28.63

S&P 500 29.67

I never look @ points loss but closely monitor RSI which is a very reliable indicator of where we really are in this TAPE.......

On Friday market got spooked with jobs data which came in @ 292K vs 200K....it is important NOT to take this number as an indicator of Fed policy, it included part time seasonal workers which were in extreme majority...IF you take those out..there was hardly any job growth, i bet January jobs growth will be anaemic 150K....so much for latest fed related theory.....BUT some supercomputers have been making money with panic selling ....

It is amazing nobody is confident about their exposure @ these "mispriced levels"

Serious money is made with your own analysis NOT CNBC and gurus panic conclusions.

China is not in trouble, it has the highest GDP growth of 6% compared to any economy, they could easily beat 6% conservative number.

YES..China is struggling with rules and regulations about managing their stock market, it is a growing pain.....remember 1000 points drop in US last August ?

I bet Chinese stock market will recover much faster than US market...so do not get smug with faulty conclusions.

Supercomputers can play with this TAPE as long as they want, but remember, they do not make money until they cover their short position....then sky high 500 points UP day all of a sudden.....

YES...2016 is a weak year, BLOG readers were told about this, so that is not a news, but your own strategy will make a difference in dealing with this weak TAPE.

Why cant you buy in mid 20 RSI..that beats me...it is historically a "major buy point"

YES..i am thinking of adding more exposure @ these level......this does not happen quite often.....

IF you were thinking of bailing out, it will be a wrong level to do that, when RSI go to 50 then liquidate, not now.

All i am pointing out is where are internals of this market, it is deeply oversold and it will rally back and then fall again......this is what weak markets do......

Good luck with your own conclusion and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


2 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Such destruction in the market. The one positive I think we might see is companies pre-announcing if they have good results. We haven't really seen that in recent years, but might be applicable in this current environment.

Side note: Lost 13.42% last week--my worst ever I can recall.

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Major snow storm was busy with removal cleanup.

Market is weak, patience required.

My week was worse than yours, thanks to slumping C $.Damage was 17.5%.

Saleem