Indices closed UP.
S&P 500 @ 1929.80, high 1932.08, low 1891.00
RSI @ 53.12
CMF @ 0.202
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.30 to 1 in NYSE & 1.98 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.80 to 1 in NYSE & 1.75 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 21 in NYSE & 80 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 1.24%@ 20.72
Oil @ $32.15
Gold @ $1239.10
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included BIDU FB JKS
SPWR FSLR CSIQ NTES AAPL AMZN LNKD NXPI NFLX
TSLA DNKN SU EBAY VDSI CRUS MU CIEN LRCX FEYE
AMBA M SPLK UA GG CCJ DATA SWIR CSOD VRX MLNX
AH ER...CRM UP 8.93%, NTES Down 6.19%,
RLYP Down 12.99%
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, TAPE chased oil to the downside and then reversed with oil & closed near high of the day. Oil remains the only thing to watch on a daily basis to determine direction of this TAPE. Weakness in strong stocks based on averages is a very good opportunity to average down or start a new position. Stay the course as we have more room to run north.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Despite challenges in some geographies, I think WLH's execution was better than in past quarters, and their economies of scale from the large acquisition are finally starting to take hold some. The CEO comments indicate some possible acceleration in January already. The conference call starts at 1:00 ET, but I think the fears of some kind of implosion of the company looks "off the table" and should lead to improved valuation as the stock is very cheap.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold RLYP @ 14.90
I might be getting too cute here, but hoping to buy back lower.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Hmm...yeah, oops. Took about 30 seconds to be wrong by $1.
I had an order for 15.74 at first and changed it when it looked like stock was stuck at $14.90-$15.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good move by WLH 20% looks fantastic.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Yes, the portfolio is up today despite the very poor sell of RLYP.
The risk/reward skew for the "right" kind of stocks versus the "wrong" kind of stocks is large still. WLH is part of that "right" stock contingent right now given P/E of ~5. We just had to clear the fear hurdle about sales momentum and financing requirements.
On the other hand, SPLK is part of the "wrong" stock basket, so I can't justify buying it here despite my love for the company. TREE was straddling the line between "right" and "wrong" so I took the safe route. I'm not disappointed by missing today's $12 at all--I had a nice run from the bottom and can take some time to evaluate the company further now.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Conference call for WLH was pretty short, not too many analysts.
I think the key ideas were what I mentioned earlier about mixed geographical dynamic but better execution and economies of scale really starting to help. Emphasis was on jump in Jan/early Feb orders. Also, company shifting more projects to focus on 1st time/first move-up buyers which should help monetize assets although may impact ASPs. Focus on paying down debt this year.
Altogether, it looks like a bottom in the business momentum last quarter which is good, and now just dependent on management to execute a strategy. They do these things and the stock can rise 50%+ easily given the extremely cheap valuation.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
WLH looks very good from TAPE action and your analysis.
Good luck with WLH$$$$$
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
It is a bad day for me. RLYP reported bad. Usually I don't hold any stocks while they report. I don't believe in hitting home runs. But I took a chance.
Anyway I plan to hold it and see how it works. Let us see if it bounces back.
I had to attend a meeting and so I was away from my computer.
Glad to know WLH is in great shape. Good luck
Joseph
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