Brexit is in rear view mirror and TAPE is poised to hit all time highs, here are the numbers for making new highs :
S&P 500 31.78 points or 1.49%
Dow 402.00 points or 2.19%
Nasdaq 369.38 points or 7.06%
Based on a 4 day week, it appears S&P 500 is all set to march into record books....
Dow could make into record books also...
Nasdaq may need another 3 weeks to cross 5231.94......
TAPE was extremely strong and impressive last week by moving UP a fast 3% in most indices.
Most sectors were participating in last week snapback.
A diversified portfolio is the-best bet going forward.
Strong stocks needs to be overweight, as technical health should provide superior result.
July may become the month of series of new highs in all indices.....
Market is looking very strong as all central banks are in wait and see mode post Brexit.
Increasing your exposure in this environment can be profitable.
I am leaving on a 2 week vacation with my family in US starting early Monday, i am unable to write my BLOG for 2 weeks, will be back with Sunday July the 17th BLOG around 2 PM.
I am hoping that stocktrader_1996 will be able to give a closing report in comment section for 9 trading days, plus his trades as they happen. His experience in market is highly valued by me and other BLOG readers.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
30 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Enjoy your vacation with your family and come back with more energy to do market update.Vacation used to be a luxury,but in today's world it has become a necessity. We all need a break. Never forget to watch a sunrise or a sunset. Just relax and enjoy...
Happy July 4 to everyone.
Joseph
Hi Saleem,
Have a great vacation with family--you deserve it!
Hope the long weekend was a great break for all! :)
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Bought RLYP @ 18.75 with the small cash I had left. The technicals are looking better for the first time in a while, and the timing seems much better for a takeout now versus a few months ago.
Portfolio (in size order): SPLK CSOD DKS NXPI WLH TASR IBP OLED SODA Z GWPH AVAV RLYP
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good to know that you have started a new position with RLYP. I still hold it with my retirement account. I had traded the stock several times.
What impressed me most was your well thought out position with TMF. It was an excellent move with the market condition. It was a well calculated move. Unfortunately i did not have much fund to buy it.
Thanks for sharing your trades. GL
Joseph
Hi Joseph,
Thanks for the kind words. I wish I had held TMF longer. Although I felt my thesis was still intact for bond yields lower, I am surprised they performed so very well as the market rebounded last week. At least I made some good trades with the proceeds from the TMF sale. Last week I was up 5.26%, beating the market indices by 2%. Overall up 6.07% on the year now, and pleased with my portfolio composition despite hiccups every now and then...
Stocktrader
Market Wrap 7/5: Indices closed DOWN .61-.82%
Indices closed DOWN on profit taking after the sharp rebound that started last Tuesday. Oil down almost 5% and 10-yr yields hitting historic lows added to the negative sentiment.
S&P 500 @ 2088.55, high 2095.05, low 2080.86
RSI @ 52.32
CMF @ 0.029
Internals were:
DOWN volume led by 3.49 to 1 in NYSE & 2.59 to 1 in NASDAQ
DECLINING stocks led by 2.75 to 1 in NYSE & 2.67 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 183 in NYSE & 67 in NASDAQ
VIX UP 5.48% @ 15.58
Oil @ $46.60
Gold @ $1358.70
Stocks which closed HIGHER included MSFT NFLX AMZN UPS CMG PNRA TASR CYBR PFPT DATA ULTA DKS KITE REGN RLYP
AH movers...MDVN up 1.20%, TSLA down 1.21%
AH Futures DOWN
AH Asian Markets DOWN
AH Oil DOWN
AH Gold UP
About market, TAPE pulled back today after four straight up days but indices still remain above key moving averages. Energy, materials, and financials were the worst three sectors led by falling oil and new record low treasury yields. The market did close off the lows of the day and the $VIX was relatively tame. Volume was mixed as a few traders took an extra day off after the holidays. Some story stocks poked positive near the end of the day indicating investors are still looking for entry points on good stocks. The market may be uncertain ahead of the Friday jobs report, but good stocks find ways to rise...
Market Wrap 7/6: Indices closed UP .44-.75%
Indices closed UP on renewed buying interest after a pullback day. Oil, treasuries, and currencies all stabilized providing a boost to sentiment while economic data was supportive and the Fed minutes showed no surprises.
S&P 500 @ 2099.73, high 2100.72, low 2074.02
RSI @ 54.50
CMF @ 0.098
Internals were:
UP volume led by 2.27 to 1 in NYSE & 2.21 to 1 in NASDAQ
ADVANCING stocks led by 1.79 to 1 in NYSE & 1.64 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 187 in NYSE & 20 in NASDAQ
VIX DOWN 3.98% @ 14.96
Oil UP @ $47.43
Gold UP @ $1367.10
Stocks which closed HIGHER by 2+% included FCX CNX APC STLD DHI TOL WLH TREE FB SPWR FSLR GILD CELG REGN VRX KSS DKS SHAK AMBA
Stocks which closed LOWER included MOS POT AA DD WLK FDX UPS AAL UAL RCL CCL JKS NFLX MU NXPI CRUS BABA QIHU BIDU SINA JCP KORS BWLD
AH movers...WDC +4.71%
AH Futures MIXED
AH Asian Markets MIXED
AH Oil UP
AH Gold UP
About market, TAPE started lower and breached multiple key moving averages early in the session. After finding some early support off the lows, the market really moved higher after the robust ISM non-manufacturing reading of 56.5 (consensus 53.3 expected), including a rise in orders to 59.9. A few stair-step moves higher throughout the day helped the market close near highs. ***This day turned out to be very significant in that it was a "bullish outside reversal" day including rejections of moving average breakdowns.*** A "bullish outside reversal" day means the market moved below yesterday's low during the session, but then closed above yesterday's high. This does not often happen and signifies strong buying interest and an intraday profound sentiment shift to bullish after washing out early. It is our clearest indication so far that the market wants to move higher despite negative chatter and naysayers all around. Stick with strong stocks and stay the course.
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your detailed market update. Hope the market will continue to go higher despite the confusion in Europe. Gl
Joseph
Market Wrap 7/7: Indices closed MIXED; Dow -0.13%, Nasdaq +0.36%, S&P 500 -0.09%
Indices closed MIXED in a fairly volatile session ahead of the June non-farm payrolls report tomorrow. Early positive sentiment from the ADP survey and weekly jobless claims turned negative when oil dropped 4.8% after EIA inventory numbers. The market rebounded near close to end with better tone.
S&P 500 @ 2097.90, high 2109.08, low 2089.39
RSI @ 54.06
CMF @ 0.067
Internals were:
UP volume led by 0.99 to 1 in NYSE & 2.21 to 1 in NASDAQ
ADVANCING stocks led by 1.21 to 1 in NYSE & 1.34 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 139 in NYSE & 56 in NASDAQ
VIX DOWN 1.34% @ 14.76
Oil DOWN $2.29 @ $45.14
Gold DOWN $5.00 @ $1362.10
Stocks which closed HIGHER by 2+% included MS AAL DAL MU SWKS CRUS QRVO OLED SODA WDC TASR HUN SINA VIPS MOMO DGLY AMBA CUDA FIT RLYP PLNT
Stock which closed LOWER by 1+% included PXD FCX CNX AKS CF JKS CSIQ SPWR FSLR MJN CMG PNRA SHAK DKS RHT CSOD TDOC MTCH TREE AVAV
AH movers...CUDA +15.1%, GPS +4.0%, PSMT -3.9%, JUNO -27.2%
AH Futures slightly UP
AH Asian Markets MIXED
AH Oil UP
AH Gold DOWN
About market, TAPE was volatile as traders positioned ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. There was good economic data on the jobs front, but oil fears bubbled up midday. Considering the large oil drop, the market did fairly well. Again it was a stock pickers market as certain stocks did very well, including the high profile buyout of WWAV. Expectations for tomorrow sit around +190K jobs with some risk to the upside given recent data points and catch-up hiring from last month's horrible number (which may instead have a large revision). A good number should provide the sigh of relief needed to propel the market to fresh YTD highs.
Hi Stocktrader,
Sold 50% of RLYP @ 20.20
Joseph
Hi Joseph,
I don't blame you. The story is basically a takeout story, so take some profits when you can :)
Stocktrader
Market Wrap 7/8: Indices closed UP; Dow +1.40%, Nasdaq +1.64%, S&P 500 +1.53%, Russ 2000 +2.40%
Indices closed much HIGHER after the jobs report showed a robust rebound from last month's very poor number. The S&P 500 flirted with all-time highs but closed just below.
S&P 500 @ 2129.90, high 2131.71, low 2106.97
RSI @ 60.08
CMF @ 0.084
Internals were:
UP volume led by 19.49 to 1 in NYSE & 6.59 to 1 in NASDAQ
ADVANCING stocks led by 7.98 to 1 in NYSE & 4.91 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 299 in NYSE & 131 in NASDAQ
VIX DOWN 10.57% @ 13.20
Oil DOWN $0.02 @ $45.12
Gold UP $5.30 @ $1367.40
Stocks which closed HIGHER by 3+% included PXD FCX AA CAT X STLD URI WLK HUN CF SPWR TSL ETN CMI LEN DHI TOL WLH GM UAL SSYS TWTR PFPT PANW SPLK NOW FTNT CUDA WUBA VIPS BWLD DKS PLNT SODA WDC LRCX MU NXPI QRVO SWKS CRUS OLED TASR DGLY LBIO XON
Stocks which closed LOWER included BABA BIDU JKS SCTY JUNO KITE
My Portfolio (in position size order): SPLK CSOD DKS NXPI WLH TASR SODA OLED IBP Z GWPH RLYP AVAV
About market, TAPE started strong and ended stronger as sellers disappeared and buyers were forced to pay up in the relief rally. We are poised to break out next week to all-time highs, but expect pauses after big moves. A full breakout is a "process", not an "event". Homework this weekend should be identifying strong charts that set up for larger up moves--that's what I'll be doing! Have a great weekend everyone! :)
Market Wrap 7/11: Indices closed UP; Dow +0.44%, Nasdaq +0.64%, S&P 500 +0.34%, Russ 2000 +1.08%
Indices closed HIGHER and at a new ALL-TIME HIGH on follow through from Friday. Talk of fresh stimulus in China and Japan helped set the positive tone from the Asian overnight session.
S&P 500 @ 2137.16, high 2143.16, low 2131.72
RSI @ 61.32
CMF @ 0.098
Internals were:
UP volume led by 2.86 to 1 in NYSE & 2.41 to 1 in NASDAQ
ADVANCING stocks led by 2.20 to 1 in NYSE & 2.06 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 322 in NYSE & 169 in NASDAQ
VIX UP 2.58% @ 13.54
Oil DOWN $0.36 @ $44.76
Gold DOWN $10.80 @ $1356.60
Stocks which closed HIGHER by 2%+ included FCX AA X AKS HUN KRA WLH RL JCP AAL DAL UAL CCL CSIQ SCTY TSL SWKS QRVO WDAY MDSO TSLA GPRO BABA BIDU VIPS CTRP TOUR CUDA HDP PLNT
Stocks which closed LOWER by 1%+ included YELP NFLX TWTR OLED SSYS TOL LYB DGLY CELG LBIO KITE XON JUNO
AH movers...STX +13.0% on pre-announce, AA +3.6% on earnings beat, RLYP +3.0% on good Rx numbers, IMPV -9.1% on pre-announce, TSLA -1.1% on SEC investigation
AH Futures slightly UP
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil UP
AH Gold UP
About market, TAPE started strong and blew through the old all-time highs. Tame inflation data from China sparked talk of more stimulus, Abe-friendly elections greased the path for more stimulus in Japan, and certainty on the new prime minister for the UK all helped set a positive morning tone. After gliding higher to midday, profit taking after a strong run pulled the indices back some, but the internals remained strong. As I mentioned Friday, a full breakout is a process, so expect some back and forth at times while traders feel out the next movers. Do not fear one-day pullbacks--they are common in bull runs and are instantly met with next day buying. Only a multi-day pullback should be examined more closely. Good luck to everyone as earnings season hits full stride! :)
Hi Stocktrader,
Rlyp is flying today. It is a good sign. Very encouraging. I wish i had not sold half of my shares.
I look at some of your stocks.Very good selection of stocks. Well done. You deserve it. Good luck.
Joseph
Hi Joseph,
Thanks for the kind words. I am not as cyclically exposed as I'd probably like, mostly because I didn't/don't trust the global growth story, but generally my stocks are outperforming the indices anyways. As of this moment, sitting with a 12.7% gain YTD. I am always tempted to try and pick tops in my stocks, but my success with that is sketchy at best. Better to just be patient in this market for now.
Stocktrader
Hi stocktrader,
Impressive gain. I thought the market would come down. But I was wrong. I got some money with TZA. Brexit helped me to get my money back. I bought TZA again thinking the market would come down again. It never happened. I had to sell TZA with a loss. At the same time I am happy to have some good gain this year. You and Saleem did help me with your trades. Thanks a million.
Good Luck
Joseph
Market Wrap 7/12: Indices closed UP; Dow +0.66%, Nasdaq +0.69%, S&P 500 +0.70%, Russ 2000 +1.33%
Indices closed HIGHER and at another new ALL-TIME HIGH on follow through from Friday & Monday. Alcoa started off the earnings season well, and oil and treasury yields both moved higher supporting energy, materials, and financials.
S&P 500 @ 2152.14, high 2155.40, low 2139.50
RSI @ 63.81
CMF @ 0.165
Internals were:
UP volume led by 3.65 to 1 in NYSE & 2.93 to 1 in NASDAQ
ADVANCING stocks led by 2.39 to 1 in NYSE & 2.59 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 276 in NYSE & 205 in NASDAQ
VIX UP $0.01 @ 13.55
Oil UP $2.04 @ $46.80
Gold DOWN $21.30 @ $1335.30
Stocks which closed HIGHER by 3%+ included AA FCX CLF CNX X COP CF MOS HUN KRA NAV MS GS WLH MU AAL DAL LUV UAL RCL SSYS DATA CSOD WDAY N HDP YY HPQ WDC LBIO RLYP TDOC MTCH
Stocks which closed LOWER included DHI TOL PFPT PANW AMZN YHOO BIDU QUNR SODA JCP MDSO TASR DGLY RUTH KITE REGN XON FIT TREE IBP HD
AH movers...JUNO +24.2% on resumption of trial, TEVA +0.7% on pre-announce, AIR -10.3% on earnings, MIK -4.4% on pre-announce and secondary, GWPH -1.7% on secondary offering
AH Futures slightly DOWN
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil DOWN
AH Gold DOWN
About market, TAPE started strong again and, besides a small dip and recovery in the early morning, held in a tight range near the day highs. Internals were once again very strong with all cyclical sectors participating. Even though the RSI is not flashing red (above 70), shorter term indicators are well into overbought territory given the extremely sharp two-week run. This does not mean we need to drop, but I suspect portfolio managers will be more selective on stocks now, especially heading into the meat of earnings season. Stick with your comfort stocks and strong charts and you can probably start trimming question marks that have hung around in the portfolio too long :).
Market Wrap 7/13: Indices closed MIXED; Dow +0.13%, Nasdaq -0.34%, S&P 500 +0.01%, Russ 2000 -0.39%
Indices closed MIXED after opening at fresh all-time highs. Some profit taking ensued after oil and treasury yields fell back some and overbought stocks stalled. The Fed's Beige Book was a non-event.
S&P 500 @ 2152.43, high 2156.45, low 2146.21
RSI @ 63.86
CMF @ 0.160
Internals were:
DOWN volume led by 1.11 to 1 in NYSE & 1.52 to 1 in NASDAQ
DECLINING stocks led by 1.15 to 1 in NYSE & 1.41 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 195 in NYSE & 144 in NASDAQ
VIX DOWN 0.51 @ 13.04
Oil DOWN $2.05 @ $44.75
Gold UP $8.30 @ $1343.60
Stocks which closed HIGHER by 1%+ included AGU CF MOS POT HUN WLK YY SODA CMG SHAK AMAT CY JUNO KITE CUDA TREE
Stocks which closed LOWER by 1.5%+ included PXD COP APC CNX LOW WLH AKS DAL TWTR YELP FSLR SCTY CSIQ SPWR SINA WUBA M KSS SBUX N NAV NEWR HDP CELG LBIO ALKS XON VRX RLYP QRVO OLED INVN PAY GWPH
AH movers...YUM +4.6% on earnings, CY +6.5% on takeover rumors
AH Futures slightly DOWN
AH Asian Markets MIXED
AH Oil UP
AH Gold DOWN
About market, TAPE gapped up in the morning to record highs again but fell immediately back on profit taking. After probing even lower mid-morning, the market recovered to close near unchanged with the Nasdaq and small caps underperforming. Today was our first profit taking day in a while, but still closed fairly well. Internals were a bit sloppy reacting to the extreme short-term overbought condition in many recent risers. This is part of the process and reflects a healthy pause. Big earnings reports tomorrow morning from JPM and DAL may set an early tone. Try not to react to intraday swings which can be more common in these summer months--they do not always indicate a true direction.
Hi guys,
Put in a bunch of sell orders to see if they fill.
Sold Z @ 36.72 so far.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good to take profit and wait for better opportunities. GL
Joseph
Hi guys,
Sold a few more:
Sold SODA @ 23.68
Sold AVAV @ 27.52
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Sold more:
Sold IBP @ 37.40
Sold OLED @ 69.14
Sold TASR @ 27.45
Sold CSOD @ 41.11
This puts me at about 48% cash.
Portfolio: SPLK DKS WLH NXPI GWPH RLYP
Stocktrader
Market Wrap 7/14: Indices closed UP; Dow +0.73%, Nasdaq +0.57%, S&P 500 +0.53%, Russ 2000 +0.08%
Indices closed UP nicely to fresh ALL-TIME HIGHS after gains in Europe and JPM & DAL's earnings beats set a strong positive tone from the start. Jobless claims remained at multi-year lows and PPI data came in "hot" signaling further strength in the economy.
S&P 500 @ 2163.75, high 2168.99, low 2157.88
RSI @ 65.79
CMF @ 0.197
Internals were:
UP volume led by 2.17 to 1 in NYSE & 1.92 to 1 in NASDAQ
ADVANCING stocks led by 1.34 to 1 in NYSE & 1.23 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 216 in NYSE & 153 in NASDAQ
VIX DOWN 0.22 @ 12.82
Oil UP $0.93 @ $45.68
Gold DOWN $11.40 @ $1332.20
Stocks which closed HIGHER by 2%+ included CF AGU MOS POT MS GS C PRU MET AKS AAL DAL UAL SPWR FSLR CSOD Z NEWR QIHU VIPS MOMO PNRA DKS TASR SWKS AVGO QRVO CRUS CY CUDA VRX TREE
Stocks which closed LOWER by 0.5%+ included SCCO APC WLH TOL IBP NAV KRA JKS CSIQ PFPT PANW FEYE HDP YELP NXPI LRCX WDC PAY GPRO M RCL CCL FRSH PLNT DGLY AMBA LBIO KITE JUNO GWPH TDOC MDSO
AH movers...RECN +1.9% after earnings, CY +2.6% on takeover rumors
AH Futures slightly UP, negative France terrorist incident offset by positive Chinese economic data
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil DOWN
AH Gold DOWN
About market, TAPE again gapped up to new all-time highs and held fairly stable all day. The advance/decline ratios and small caps showed less internal strength than the averages. This may be a sign of a weakening move higher, although may be merely a rotation from independently moving stocks to highly cyclical stocks as the economic data around the world has been surprising to the upside. I have personally reduced exposure in stocks I think may pull back after earnings either due to question marks about those earnings or just simply because they have run too much. My exposure to cyclical stocks has not been high enough during this move, and my "story" stocks are showing signs of fatigue. I may be overplaying my hand here, but it is sometimes ok to reset and rethink. The market is very strong and any pullback should be bought and overall exposure should remain high even if you do personal rotation.
Hi guys,
Bought BAC @ 13.56
It is my favorite bank due to domestic exposure and it seems economic data is really getting better here.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Bought FDX @ 161.89
Trying to get more cyclical. FDX's valuation is very reasonable, and their recent acquisition is now being viewed less negatively given a rebound in European sentiment from the lows.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Added more to NXPI @ 80.07
It has been held down by recent spot secondaries, but I think the worst of that activity is behind us. Given the recent divestiture and subsequent higher growth profile, I think the stock will be re-rated higher and the company has cash for strategic opportunities including buybacks.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Added to RLYP @ 20.20
Prescriptions finally seem to be ramping which increases value significantly. Even though I'm not sure on the timing of an buyout, I think the downside for the stock is limited, especially with the high short interest and the evolving story. For a biotech, just having limited downside risk is 75% of a good trade.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Re-bought TASR @ 27.50
In rethinking, I made a mistake to sell it yesterday. It is still in the early stages of a massive trend towards police body cameras, and those contracts provide a constant revenue stream. Although P/E seems high, I think the potential exists for many future beat/raise quarters, and overall valuation is modest at $1.5B for the leader in equipping the world's police forces.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Bought a speculative CY position @ 11.43
This is based on takeover rumors that persist and have legitimacy based on options flow also. The valuation without a takeover is reasonable, so it seems ok to speculate. Rumors are that they have turned down a $14/sh offer looking for $15/sh.
Stocktrader
Market Wrap 7/15: Indices closed MIXED; Dow +0.05%, Nasdaq -0.09%, S&P 500 -0.09%, Russ 2000 +0.26%
Indices closed MIXED on profit taking after a higher open. Economic data was favorable with strong retail sales and industrial production combined with a tame consumer price index report.
S&P 500 @ 2161.74, high 2169.05, low 2155.79
RSI @ 65.12
CMF @ 0.154
Internals were:
DOWN volume led by 1.01 to 1 in NYSE & 1.05 to 1 in NASDAQ
ADVANCING stocks led by 1.20 to 1 in NYSE & 1.13 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk HIGHS were leading by 125 in NYSE & 82 in NASDAQ
VIX DOWN 0.15 @ 12.67
Oil UP $0.60 @ $46.28
Gold UP $5.50 @ $1337.70
Stocks which closed HIGHER by 1%+ included FCX AA CNX MOS X AKS SCTY CE MHK YELP GILD CELG REGN KITE JUNO RLYP NOW VMW AMBA MTCH
Stocks which closed LOWER by 1%+ included CF MU DAL NAV RCL CCL SSYS JKS CSIQ TSL FEYE WDAY CUDA BIDU SINA TOUR VIPS JCP DKS NKE CMG PNRA BWLD SHAK FIT GPRO SQ MDSO TASR DGLY XON
AH movers...TUR (Turkey ETF) -5.0% on Turkey coup reports, TKC (Turkcell) -6.1% also
AH S&P 500 Futures/Indications DOWN 0.6% on Turkey coup reports
My Portfolio: SPLK NXPI BAC FDX DKS WLH RLYP TASR CY GWPH, cash 8.8%
About market, TAPE gapped higher again on strong economic data but quickly succumbed to profit taking, which is not unusual for a Friday after a strong bull week. After an intraday dip into more negative territory, a decent run into the close gave us a mixed close. Rotation continued today as the small cap laggards of the last two days performed well and the internals were better than the averages. The biggest story may have come after the close with reports of the coup in Turkey. It will take the weekend to sort through the results and ramifications, but any respectable dip should be a buying opportunity. I added a lot of exposure back today after liquidating some things yesterday, and I am more comfortable with both my individual names and also better diversification now. There is nothing yet to suggest a tiring of this bull, and Monday may provide another good test of the market's true intentions. We all look forward to Saleem's return on Sunday! :)
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