Indices have been building base for about a month, that is when most indices have made new high, it is healthy to mark time before another explosive move UP.
Jobs report which was way below estimate, pushes interest rate hike, further down the road, who knows, could be next year.
British Pound pounding has created new turmoil for hedge funds, who loves to bet big on currencies, we may have been impacted by sudden slump, wrong side bets are generally covered with gains in equity.
GDP growth worldwide is ticking UP, India and China are in 7.5% and 6.5% camp.
US$ strength have crushed commodities and currencies, Canadian $ has been crushed to new 11 month low.
Gold & Silver are struggling big time......
Oil is looking much better despite US$ strength, $50 now, maybe $60 in New year.....
Q3 earnings are ready to roll this week with AA.....as usual there is lot of anxiety, most traders are worried about missing consensus, but in the end, 70% should beat estimate.
Fed officials are in overdrive making prediction about interest rates, which has not panned out, but they do not give up their faulty position.
There is a general calm around the world in economic activity vs many anxieties before.
US interest rate being low is a good driving force for equities making series of new highs.
Strong acting stocks will do well in beating estimates, i may join "earnings play" as last quarter.
This spell of weak stock movement, should be taken as a time to buy and accumulate.
Q4 is a good from seasonality point of view, strongest quarter of the year.
RSI is extremely reasonable even for strong Nasdaq @ 53.64, weakest being S&P 500 @ 48.13.
SOX RSI is strongest @ 65.58, thanks to NXPI and its potential linkage with QCOM.
SO....all in all, a very favorable environment for a surge in equity prices. Exposure needs to be high in high comfort stocks, where earnings are on a roll, AMZN, GOOG, FB to name a few.
Good luck with your own strategy and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hi Saleem,
A great week with the portfolio +3.46% vs losses for the indices. The major winners were TRIL +12.5% and an opportunistic trade of LABD +11.6%. I look forward to the start of earnings season. I think there could be a wide disparity between winners and losers--I hope I'm in the right spots :)
Portfolio: TRIL, URI AAPL QRVO SWN SPLK, DKS WLH ZYNE, CNAT, cash 7.0%
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Trimmed some URI @ 82.04 as I'd indicated I wanted to last week. This puts it more in the DKS WLH ZYNE weighting range.
Although the company is well run, I wanted to take some profits as I think the company still has to prove they can continue on a growth path as some of their end markets remain challenged.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Excellent performance by your stock picks. Portfolio is setting up for another good year.
Good to book profit.
Saleem
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