US stock market has entered an interesting stage.....
Many stocks are overbought
Some stocks are oversold
Depends where you are looking or exposed to...
Technically speaking Nasdaq is behaving very weak, Internals are negative on most days.
BUT from RSI point of view 3 sectors are flashing severe overbought conditions and they are :
S&P 500 RSI @ 74.53
DOW RSI @ 74.28
XLB RSI @ 70.68
Strangely weakest Internals of Nasdaq is @ RSI of 64.00..just getting overbought....
Weakest sector from RSI point of view is TAN @ 43.44...Solar stocks have dived big time....
Based on stimulus of $1.9 trillion and policy focus DOW stocks should benefit along with Solar.....
XLE is 2nd weakest with 47.44.. which should be doing very well considering vaccines are being taken @ fastest pace worldwide, thus economic activity being accelerated @ rapid pace now , CHINA GDP grew @ 19%.......biggest user of oil after USA.......
Russell 2000 RSI @ 53.95 showing deceleration of small cap, could be setting up for a rally.
SLV RSI @ 55.88 is attractive as Silver is facing supply issue vs demand for Industrial use.
To say the least....It is a confusing market where many indices have corrected big time and others cannot find footing thus going sideways.
Earnings are in full swing, Banks have showed their reports, NOW it is bulk of the market to " show their earnings "
Earnings may result in " sell the news " is my best guess.....as we have not pulled back
BUT we are making new all time highs in S&P 500 and DOW daily...Nasdaq is only 2 good days away from making new all time high.....so far Nasdaq is not confirming new all time highs......
Every market needs a pause....
Rotation may do the equivalent of correction IF we just move to oversold areas....
My thesis tells me that " do not chase any stock "
Buy when stocks give you attractive entry point only .....
Nasdaq stocks have faded gradually while sector rotation keeps happening on a daily basis.
Casinos are opening UP in Las Vegas and Macau is showing pulse, thus some hope of positive action.
Exposure needs to be under normal level till we get a clear picture of direction and strength.
Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: -0.92% (YTD: +17.22%)
Notable Leaders: BHVN PLAN SUMO
Notable Laggards: EH GMBL PSNL SNAP ESTC
The portfolio lost ground as some early-year winners pulled back significantly. Broad strength in the general market did not translate to success for all stocks. I remain concerned about the extension of this overall market rally, especially as underlying breadth is not quite as supportive for the bullish picture. I wonder if the biggest hiccup will come from consumer spending in coming months after people realize there won't be more stimulus checks and begin to build savings instead. For the next month, earnings should rule, and the reactions to reports whether good or bad will set the tone. I hope to find some opportunities in good stocks that "sell on the news".
Holdings: FDX SNAP BHVN PSNL ESTC GMBL, cash 60.1%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week Down .39%
YTD UP 4.64%
Saleem
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